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Florida COVID-19 Reality Check – November 3rd, 2021
Bottom Line: Monday marked a meaningful milestone measuring Florida’s progress in the pandemic. It was the 2nd consecutive day Florida reported fewer than 1,000 daily new COVID-19 cases since June 2nd...of last year. And when you think back to late August when Florida was still averaging over 20,000 new cases daily – it's remarkable to think that we have about a 20th of the cases today that we had then. We’ve now experienced a 93% decline in average cases from peak levels. Additionally, Florida has most recently had the lowest population adjusted rate of COVID-19 cases nationally for two weeks. The better news looks likely to continue.
The Mayo Clinic’s tracker and projection tool has been highly accurate throughout the pandemic. Looking at the 14-day projections, the news looking out over the next couple of weeks remains the best it’s been since the Delta variants hit the scene. They provide three different models. What they call the “lower bound” projection, or best-case scenario, the middle, or average projection and an upper bound, or worst-case scenario. I’ll work backwards from the worst-case to the best. With new cases currently at three-month lows, here’s what’s anticipated over the next couple of weeks.
Under the worst-case projection from the Mayo Clinic, Florida’s cases would increase by 22% from where we are today, leaving the state pacing around 2,100 new cases daily in two weeks. The average projection has Florida seeing a 22% decrease in cases to around 1,400 daily cases. The best-case scenario continues to provide much better news. Under that scenario we’d see a decline in cases to around the earliest weeks of the pandemic with a decline of 56% over the next two weeks leaving us with around 800 daily cases.
While many experts expect a winter surge in cases, so perhaps we’re not out of the woods with the pandemic yet, the odds generally remain in our favor for continued improved for at least the next couple of weeks.