Q&A – How Big Can 2022’s Red Wave Be?

Q&A – How Big Can 2022’s Red Wave Be?

Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods. 

Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com

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Today’s entry: Brian I’m a long-time listener but this is the first time I’ve written you (or anyone else on air). I’m thankful to have a trusted voice available for information and insight.It’syour insightI’minterested in today. I briefly heard you say something recently about the outlook for the midterms. I was wondering if you could provide historical perspective with current information about what the outlook is for next year? Many of us are looking for good news to latch onto right now and the recent elections were encouraging. 

Bottom Line: Talking about the 2022 midterms is still a premature exercise but it won’t be much longer. Obviously, we’re now under a year away which means we’re officially inside of that cycle and as we know time flies once we enter the holiday season which kicks off next week. So, before we know it, it’ll be 2022 and I get having something to look forward to given the plight we find ourselves in under the abomination that is the Biden administration with Democrats in complete control of Congress. Before diving into some of the finer comparative points – I'll take the time to kill another media and leftist narrative. You know how you’ve heard the belief that had Democrats passed the so-called bi-partisan infrastructure bill prior to this November’s elections Democrats would have fared better? You might call that Build, Back, BS. Why? Consider this... 

• Biden’s average approval rating on Election Day: 43% approval – 51% disapproval
• Biden’s average approval rating today: 42% approval – 53% disapproval

Time and time again we see the narratives of the left and their allies in news media fall flat. Incidentally, not only is Biden’s average approval rating down a point with disapproval up two points since the passage of the bill, we enter this week with Biden’s approval rating the lowest and disapproval rating the highest at any point in his term thus far. So, while Biden will extoll the virtues in a signing ceremony of this today, most Americans care far more about how much more everyday life costs than they do Biden’s grand vision.He’salready lost credibility on these issues. So, about the outlook for next year’s elections. The outlook for change in Washington is only growing.

The best ubiquitous measure of the mood of the country in the context of Congressional electionsis the generic ballot question. In gaining complete control of Congress, Democrats beat Republicans in Congressional races by 3-points nationally last year. In other words, from a generic ballot perspective,Democrats had what amounted to a 3-point advantage on Election Day. That was an improvement over the 8-point shellacking the GOP took in the 2018 midterms, which is why they were able to gain some lost ground in the House of Representatives last year while still managing to lose Senate seats which flipped control of the Senate. The last cycle Republicans won the Congressional vote nationally was in 2016 when they just so happened to win byalmost exactly1-point. Based on where we are today with Republican's polling with an average 1-point lead – that becomes the floor for whatwe’relooking at today. As for what that would potentially look like using the House of Representatives as the barometer, given that all House seats are up for election every two years while Senate seats come up only every six...

Makeup of the US House after 2016 elections:

• 241 Republicans

Current makeup:

• 213 Republicans

So, the current floor if the mood of the country were to remain as it is today on Election Day next year would be a gain of 31 seats for Republicans allowing them to easily gain control of the House. Now the reason I say that’s the floor, is two-fold. Over the past five election cycles Republicans have outperformed the final generic ballot question by 1%. Additionally, history suggests that meaningful mood changes in off-election years generally grow leading into the next cycle. To that end, the last time Republicans held any advantage on the generic ballot question in November of the year preceding an election, was in 2013. Republicans held an average advantage of 1% - just like today. On Election Day 2014 Republicans won Congressional races bynearly 6%. Thus the 2014 midterm Election cycle is the best comp to where we are today. And what was the composition of the House after the 2014 midterms? 

• 247 Republicans

That election was the high watermark for Congressional Republicans since 1928. So as of today, the 2022 landscape for Republicans in the US House indicates a gain of between 31 to 37 seats – with 37 appearing most likely. One might imagine that type of performance would likely allow Republicans to gain at least one net Senate seat as well which would flip the balance of Congress in both chambers. So that’s the view of the likely as of today using history as a guide. Based on what you indicated you’re looking for; I’d imagine you’d view that as good news.