Xi Jinping is Ready for War & Goodbye La Nina, Hello El Nino – Top 3 Takeaways – March 30th, 2023
- Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War. This is my top takeaway today because it was the headline yesterday in the top story on ForeignAffairs.com. And the bottom line is that if there’s truth to the article, which is replete with timelines, Xi speeches, recent law changes and new mandates for citizens to join the, what’s called “National Defense Mobilization” effort...we’re in extremely treacherous territory. Speaking of which NDM offices have been opened in the nine largest cities in China since December actively enlisting citizens. I’ll hit a few of the high points. The story explains that in addition to China having doubled their military budget and spending, their just completed project was a series of air-raid shelters bordering Taiwan accompanied by a new wartime emergency hospital. The story reported that starting last fall Xi accelerated the Chinese Military-Civil Fusion initiative. That’s one in which all businesses and employees at those businesses must automatically convert to assisting the military modernization effort at Xi’s discretion. It also details a series of four recently delivered speeches by Xi to his generals to be “war ready” and “dare to fight”. There’s a lot more context to the reporting as well, like how China has specifically monitored the failures of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how they’ve adjusted, and that they’ve been calculating the readiness and responsiveness of the United States based on our handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But forget all of that stuff, right? How about some more TikTok videos? And well, that was also a conclusion drawn by the article's authors. That Xi Jinping is literally saying he’s preparing China for War and...
- “The world should take him seriously”. They note that the United States is not. And part of what’s notable about this story, aside from the extensive, detailed and evidence–based reporting provided – is who was providing it. The lead author of the story is John Pomfret, the former Beijing Bureau Chief for the Washington Post. A person and a publication not exactly known for being especially critical of the Biden administration. His co-author, Matt Pottinger who is currently the Chair of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies was previously, a Deputy National Security Adviser to the president. When these people who have long had a presence on the ground in China report with deep evidenced sourcing that Xi Jinping is preparing for war and we’re not prepared as a country for what’s coming, that’s a top takeaway. Even if, as is most likely to be the case, I’m the only person you’ll hear this from today. Instead, we’re a country led a feckless president who's personally compromised by former Chinese “business dealings” with over a 130 million Americans who are still using TikTok regularly. I recently mentioned that the next year and a half, with Biden at the helm, is an especially precarious window of time for our country and the world because of the perception of US weakness is actively being seized upon. It started with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It escalated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And next, we could be at a real risk of it reaching its apex with China. But hey, still no mean Trump tweets – so this is really so much better, right? I know the Ukrainians must think so. Ditto the Taiwanese about now. In happier news...
- Hello El Nino. I don’t know how accurate AccuWeather’s 2023 hurricane forecast will be. If we’re lucky it’ll prove to be about as accurate as last year’s preseason forecast which wildly overestimated what would be during what turned out to be an exceedingly average hurricane season. If so, it’d be an especially quiet season this year and that’s because their forecast is already calling for an averageish kind of year. But more important than the number of storms they’re projecting at this point in the year, is the reason they’re calling for far fewer of them this year. The impact of La Nina going bye-bye, but also the now increased likelihood we’ll be saying hello to El Nino. This is the meteorological equivalent of a pendulum swinging from one extreme to the other. When it comes to the Atlantic Hurricane season, the La Nina effect is the ultimate hurricane incubator. La Nina patterns bring cooler surface temperatures to the Pacific Ocean while doing just the opposite in the Atlantic. And along with warmer surface temperatures in the Atlantic, comes less windshear as well. For the better part of the past eight years and eight hurricane seasons La Nina stirred the meteorological pot. About a month ago we conclusively knew that we’d finally be saying goodbye to La Nina, but what was unclear was whether the weather pattern would be neutral or whether we’d be seeing El Nino – the pattern which brings warmer surface temps to the Pacific, with cooler surface temps to the Atlantic along with a whole lot of windshear. Yesterday’s forecasting provided a significant update. We’re currently in a neutral phase, however the pattern is still shifting and by August – just in time for the traditional two busiest months of hurricane season - we’ll be in an El Nino. The question no longer appears to be about whether we’ll have El Nino this hurricane season, but about simply how strong it will be for the back half of hurricane season. That’s the best news we’ve had in a preseason hurricane season forecast in eight years. So, goodbye La Nina and hello El Nino.