Trump’s Strategy is Winning – How March was Won – Top 3 Takeaways – April 3rd, 2023
- What the Trump strategy has been about right along. No, I don’t think the indictment and tomorrow’s arraignment was his preference or specifically part of his plan. But fortunately/unfortunately it plays directly into it. A two-tiered system of justice. A corrupted system where the current President of the United States has his son literally on video committing felonies with hookers for the world to see and yet we’re told by a Manhattan DA, who ran a political campaign on the promise that he’d be the one to indict Donald Trump, that no one is above the law. A fact in which, if there were an actual, equitable, system of justice would get this case automatically tossed by the judge it’ll be presented to and would lead to Bragg being disbarred. But back to Trump’s plan and how March was won. It started weeks before the news of Trump’s potential indictment. My best advice for any of us is not to pay attention to the polls. It's April of 2023. And look, I promise you that with Joe Biden as acting President of the United States, I get it if you are. I wouldn’t even blame you for actively counting down the days to January 20th of 2025 (its 658 by the way), when God willing, we’ll have a president who at minimum should be aware of what day of the week it is. But daily poll watching this far in advance of even presidential primary votes being cast (that’s to be determined – several states have yet to finalize primary dates - Florida’s presidential primary date will be March 19th, or nearly a still a year away), can’t be good for your health. Yet still, nearly daily, new polls come in and stories about them are sent out. So even if you’re not actively scrolling the polls on RealClearPolitics, there’s a good chance you’re still hearing about them. And by them, I’m also referring specifically to the performance of Trump and DeSantis in them. It’s safe to say there’s never been so much poll watching which has taken place between two candidates this far in advance of an election, and with one of the candidates not even officially a candidate. But here we are and there they are and over the past week we’ve had three Republican primary polls which have all shown the same trend.
- Trump’s advantage over DeSantis is theoretically growing. Bigly. The three pollsters, Harvard-Harris, Quinnipiac and Fox News, have been conducting monthly presidential primary polls. And last month the average advantage across the three polls by these pollsters showed a 15-point advantage for Trump over DeSantis. A large lead yes, but far from insurmountable for a candidate who hadn’t declared and still wasn’t well known by about a quarter of the country. The average this month across those three pollsters – 23 – points. A lead so big it almost theoretically negates the fact that about a quarter of the country still doesn’t really know DeSantis. Does any of this really matter? No, not for us. But could it be relevant? Maybe. That’s because I can assure you that there are two people who are regularly watching those polls. Trump, who has been sure to make all who will listen aware of what they’ve been saying this week. And the yet to announce DeSantis who has been especially quiet this week on that topic after his Piers Morgan interview which preceded these polls. What’s relevant to note as we’ve wrapped up March is what appears not to have happened for Ron DeSantis. National momentum. DeSantis set the stage for March to be his month of momentum. The plan and strategy were clear. First was the timing of his book release on February 28th. That would be followed by a weeklong national book tour. He would return home to Florida with a #1 national bestseller and would preside over the state’s legislative session with a Republican supermajority positioned to pass his bold agenda. An agenda which would...
- Grab national headlines building on his momentum just in time for the announcement of a presidential run in May – which historically has been the month the most candidates have announced presidential runs. Now, everything up to this point has seemingly gone according to plan with the legislature having already taken huge strides to pass a bold agenda, in fact one that was even bolder on school choice than the governor himself proposed. But the rest of the month, primarily outside of Florida, didn’t go as planned. Trump’s attacks on DeSantis ramped up during the month online, in person at rallies across the country, and in strategically timed TV interviews. Heck, you may have even noticed that Trump began advertising his book, Our Journey Together, first released in the fall of 2021 – again. How many ads have you seen of late for DeSantis’ just released book? And just for good measure Trump announced that he’ll soon release a new book. Trump’s every political move has been squarely focused on heading off his biggest potential obstacle to becoming the Republican Presidential nominee...before he’s even entered the race. And it appears it may be working. While most Floridians, especially would-be Republican primary voters, bristle at Trump’s characterization of DeSantis as an average Republican governor with great marketing (or even worse more recently). And let’s be real, that line of attack is truly absurd...it really doesn’t matter in Florida if Ron DeSantis isn’t running for president by March 19th of next year. And if that’s the case I’m sure the last thing on any voter’s mind a year from now will be what Trump said about DeSantis today. The best way to win a Republican primary against Ron DeSantis would be to defeat him before he’s even in the race. That’s what the Trump strategy has been right along. March was supposed to be DeSantis’ month. Instead, he’s polling worse today than he was a month ago. So much for March momentum. So, with March having gone according to Trump’s plan, rather than DeSantis’, one wonders if it’ll give DeSantis pause about potentially announcing a presidential run at all? That’s what Trump’s plan has been since he first called him Ron DeSanctimonious last fall. How many times has Trump said something that seemed absurd at first which later worked out exactly as he said or played out exactly the way he intended? This is no different than Lyin’ Ted, Low Energy Jeb, or Little Marco. It’s not personal, except to the extent that it is. Remember that at the same time he first referenced DeSantimonious, he was holding a reelection rally for the not-so-little Marco Rubio? I have little doubt that Trump would be more than happy to rally for the great governor of Florida Ron DeSantis as well – in 2028. And now, with the indictment, there’s going to be little oxygen in the room for anyone not named Trump to make news. DeSantis still stands as potentially the top non-Trump candidate, but the prospect of being that person doesn’t look the same as DeSantis had planned a month ago.