Florida Won the Decade & Is Still Winning This Year – Top 3 Takeaways – April 17th, 2023
- Florida won the decade. I for one am never tired of winning. And Florida, as our CFO Jimmy Patronis often says, is for winners. We’re used to being on top for things like net migration, jobs, new business formation, economic growth and taxes on the financial side. And we’re used to being on top for beaches, golf and retirement on the lifestyle side. It’s no secret that no state has performed better than Florida since the pandemic. But those of us who’ve been here for far longer have been winning for far longer. The latest report from the American Legislative Exchange is out and it shows just how long Florida has been winning – ten full years preceding Florida’s post-pandemic boom. Between 2011 and 2021 Florida’s economy was the best in the country. The best for jobs, the best for migration, the best for overall economic growth. Florida won the decade, and it frankly wasn’t even close. Utah, a far smaller state, was number two and the closest large state was Texas at number seven. How impressive were the gains? Florida’s economy grew by greater than 66% in ten years. Just how impressive is that...? It’s double the national average. That’s right, double. Florida’s economy hasn’t just been the best for over a decade, if this were a track competition, we effectively lapped the country over the course of the race. Jimmy is right, Florida is for winners, it has been for winners and...
- Florida will continue to be for winners. While the annual ALEC report provided historical perspective, it also offers real-time perspective with an outlook for what will be this year across the country. And the net-net of it all is that while Florida’s overall economic outlook isn’t currently the best in the country for this year, we remain in the top ten overall and have by far the best economic outlook among big states. Across a total of 15 different economic measures factored into the ratings, Florida’s economic outlook is the 9th best for 2023 – with Utah leading the way and New York pulling up the rear. In fact, what we see is that stereo types continue to exist for a reason. The top 15 states for this year’s economic outlook are all traditional red states or are currently led by Republican governors (Nevada at #10). Meanwhile, all but one of the bottom 15 states (Nebraska) are traditional blue states with the six worst states for economic outlook being California, Illinois, New Jersey, Minnesota, Vermont and New York. And you might say that if Florida is for winners, states like California, New Jersey and New York are for losers. Hey, you get the government and the policy you vote for. If you vote for losers, you get governed by losers and your local economy will stink as a result. And here’s why this is especially important right now. While Florida’s economy being a top performer is great during generally good times...
- It’s of paramount importance when stuff goes sideways, and poo starts to hit the fan. Last week the Federal Reserve said their best guess about what happens in the economy this year is a recession. If their best guess is right, where we live becomes especially important. In the current economy, states with good economic policies are the haves and states with poor economic policies are the have nots. If we enter a mild recession later this year, which is now the base case according to the Federal Reserve, where we live matters. The divide between the economies of many states has never been wider. If there’s a mild recession that’s the average effect which will be felt across the economy, residents of Colorado and Louisiana, which are in the middle for economic outlooks this year, may feel the effects of it. However, for the bottom feeders like the aforementioned, a mild recession for the country would feel like a severe recession for them. And as for states near the top like Florida, a mild recession for the country wouldn’t be a recession at all for us. In fact, our economy would likely continue to grow while the country’s overall would shrink. In fact, you need look back no further than the first half of last year to see this having happened. While the US economy entered a technical recession in the first half of last year with two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, Florida’s economy continued to grow. So, while the country may soon face the prospects of recession, in Florida, the question may well be, what recession? Florida is for winners and our economy is likely to continue to win regardless of what happens around us this year.