DeSantis, Fried & Trumpworld – Top 3 Takeaways – May 1st, 2023
- DeSantis 1 – Trumpworld & Nikki Fried 0. No Governor DeSantis still hasn’t announced he’s running for president. Yes, he’s won the first official battle of the 2024 cycle. Fresh off of his international trip, and with the state’s legislative session set to end this week, we may not have to wait much longer for a much-anticipated announcement. But in the game within the game, one which created strange bedfellows as Florida’s Democrat party head Nikki Fried, who has a penchant for weed, filed an ethics complaint alongside the Trumpworld Super PAC MAGA Inc. The PAC most well-known for the recent and bizarre “pudding fingers” hit piece on Ron DeSantis. The complaints alleged a series of misdeeds by America’s Governor. From the funding for a three-day retreat at the Four Seasons Palm Beach, to the funding for his recent book tour, the complaints suggested DeSantis was effectively running a presidential campaign and using what were essentially donor dollars to do it, without officially running a campaign for the office. What would be a violation of Florida law, and if true, would have the potential to violate federal election law. But alas, the Florida Ethics Commission has rejected the challenges about as quickly as they were brought. The premise of the attempted ethics violations were flat out rejected as being “legally insufficient” and “speculative”. By now Nikki Fried is accustomed to losing. And Trumpworld’s record on legal challenges isn’t exactly good either. Something that I’ve observed over the years that often flies under the radar, is...
- Just how good of a legal mind Ron DeSantis has. It’s often overlooked that DeSantis was a Harvard educated attorney turned highly decorated JAG officer. Many have alleged various legal improprieties against him since serving as Governor. None of them stick. DeSantis has a strong understanding of the law and has had an outstanding record at interpreting it on many big issues. That’s worth considering as the latest legal challenge naming him is the one brought about by Disney. DeSantis well knows what he’s doing and the legal basis for DeSantis’ case is as strong as it gets. Why should Disney have special rights that literally no other business or enterprise in the state enjoys? It’s not complicated. However, what does complicate that case is whether DeSantis’ actions are determined to be retaliatory. Just as anyone can be fired at any time in Florida legally – if it’s proved someone was fired as a form of retaliation or discrimination – it's illegal...the Disney case against DeSantis is a similar thing. Disney has no lawful right to govern themselves. They had no lawful right to manipulate the Reedy Creek District at the end, giving them self-governing rights for the next 30-years despite state law. However, if it’s evidenced that DeSantis’ policy crafted by the legislature was purely a form of retaliation it could prove problematic for him. And the first arbiter of the case will be a nemesis of Florida’s Republican governors – Judge Mark Walker who has a long track record of ruling against Florida’s Republican governors – including DeSantis (though often his rulings have been overturned upon appeal). That’s the case against DeSantis worth watching. But back to DeSantis having won the round of legal challenges against Trumpworld...while DeSantis has won round one...
- Trump appears to be winning the political war. There’s a lot that could take place politically this week. It’s the first week of May and the final week of the state legislative session. This also means it’s the final week before DeSantis may finally announce a presidential bid. However, in the realm of political perception we likely haven’t arrived at this week the way that DeSantis had planned. From his book release and book tour, to his just completed international trip and legislative wins, our governor clearly crafted the entire month of April to create momentum for something more coming out of it. Instead, it’s been just the opposite. In an average of Republican primary polls, DeSantis entered April trailing Trump by fifteen points, with Trump pulling only 44% support among primary voters. An uphill battle? Sure. Doable? Yes. A month later, the story looks entirely different. With more people watching and with increased national attention, DeSantis has been dropping. Trump effectively doubled his lead over DeSantis to greater than 28% currently. That happened through a combination of Trump rising and DeSantis falling. Trump’s now over 51%, while DeSantis has lost 8% support to pace just 23% currently. Three things are clear entering May in Republican presidential primary circles. 1) Republicans rallied around Trump following the indictment which is notable in part because there could be more to come, a la, in Atlanta. 2) Trump’s attacks on DeSantis have been working. 3) The more voters have become familiar with DeSantis nationally, the less support he’s received. The last one is an especially challenging one. There’s a chance DeSantis’ presidential prospects for this cycle have already peaked. What more can DeSantis do to raise his prospects than what he’s recently done? That’s the question he must be asking himself about now, or at a minimum should be. About the only change catalyst which can flip a race by about 30-points among two especially well-known candidates would be a devasting debate performance by the leader combined with a dominating debate performance by the challenger. If Trump’s legal issues won’t hurt him with Republican primary voters, dominating debates may be the only chance DeSantis would have. April was full of best laid plans for Florida’s governor. The odds are that he still enters the race, but one wonders if he’s rethinking the idea after the way the past month has gone with Trump seemingly winning the political war, bigly, in April.