It’s The Week Many Have Been Waiting For & Florida’s Still Winning – Top 3 Takeaways – May 22nd, 2023
- It’s the week many have been waiting for. No, I’m not talking about Memorial Day weekend being around the corner, though with a record number of Floridians expected to be on the move according to AAA, it’s clear many are looking forward to the upcoming long weekend. It’s the week those in political circles on both sides of the isle have long been waiting for. The week that Governor DeSantis makes his intention to be the next President of the United States official. While any number of scenarios for the actual announcement are possible, many are suggesting the announcement will coincide with a fundraising event with top DeSantis donors in Miami on Wednesday. What we do know is that the announcement is coming. As I covered last week, his new campaign headquarters in downtown Tallahassee, which was established last Monday, kicked off a 15 day window in which he is legally obligated to file federal campaign finance disclosures. That means he must file his paperwork and related campaign disclosures no later than May 29th – which is Memorial Day, making this week the week it happens. The left has been salivating over this matchup as they have visions of an old-fashioned MTV styled political celebrity deathmatch to the finish. A campaign battle so bruising that neither will look viable in the end, making their job in the general easier... Along with a wish that Trump wins in the end with DeSantis’ political stardom being forever diminished on the national stage. Many on the right have anticipated this for one of two reasons. They want a Trump-alternative and there’s no question DeSantis is the strongest of the pack. Or they’re anxious Trump supporters who’ve anticipated this battle was coming and are ready to get on with it (along with the hope that Trump wins but that perhaps DeSantis becomes a running mate). One thing is for certain...
- Florida will remain the focus of the Republican political world, though ironically, when it comes to deciding who the next Republican presidential candidate will be, Florida will be the 25th state to vote. Meaning that while we’re the center of the political world, there’s a chance the race is possibility all but officially decided by the time the vote takes place here. And what that means is that while the focus has been on national polling head-to-head between Trump and DeSantis up to this point, all that really matters is who has momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire heading into January. Trump continues to dominate the national head-to-head polling as he currently shows a 37-point lead over DeSantis in the national political polls. However, there is another number that’s just as relevant seven months in advance of actual votes being counted. DeSantis continues to not only have the highest favorability rating of any nationally known political figure. DeSantis is the only nationally known political figure with a net positive favorability rating period. Trump proved in 2016 that most people don’t have to like him in order for him to be able to win. However, it’s a whole lot easier to win over new voters when they do like you. The current polling shows DeSantis as having a much lower floor for support coming into the race, but the favorability ratings project a potentially higher ceiling than any candidate in either political party. And as for the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, they look much different than the national picture. Trump is currently averaging an advantage of 12-points in Iowa over DeSantis and 23-points in New Hampshire. They’re both sizeable advantages, however they’re much closer than the national polling average suggests the race may currently be. So, this is the week it will be game on for one of the most anticipated presidential primary battles in American history and we’ll have a front row seat for all of it. Speaking of matters here at home...
- There’s still no slowdown in South Florida’s economic boom. Last year we avoided a recession locally while the country was in a technical recession during the first half of the year. And this year, it’s clear that whatever will happen with the economy across the country it’ll continue to be better here. On Friday we learned Florida had record tourism with nearly 38 million visitors during the first quarter of the year and that our economy at the state and local levels continued to run laps around the competition. April’s jobs report for Florida showed record employment and growth yet again. Florida’s jobs grew 52% faster than the national average over the past year and we have an unemployment rate that’s 24% lower than the national average as well. Here at home in the Palm Beaches, our unemployment rate stands at a remarkably low 2.3%, one of the lowest rates of any community in the country, besting the state’s outstanding performance in the process. Whatever will be with the national economy, it’s clear that it will continue to be better here. Florida’s continuing to win and I’m not tired of it.