Hurricane Season, DeSantis’ Swing & The Debt Ceiling – Top 3 Takeaways – June 1st, 2023
- Hurricane season is here...but do not fear. I say that for two reasons. First, somewhat indiscriminate fear isn’t healthy for anyone and second, because for the first time in eight years the weather trend is our friend. For eight long years we’ve entered hurricane season in some phase of La Nina, which sounds pretty but is anything but when it comes the Atlantic Hurricane season as she has a way of warming our waters and spinning up storms. Her weather brother (or perhaps cousin?) El Nino is our friend. And it just so happens that since the end of March we’ve been swinging from La Nina in the general direction of El Nino. Here’s a quick refresh for those who may not know what’s up with El Nino. When it comes to the Atlantic Hurricane season, the La Nina effect is the ultimate hurricane incubator. La Nina patterns bring cooler surface temperatures to the Pacific Ocean while doing just the opposite in the Atlantic. And along with warmer surface temperatures in the Atlantic, comes less windshear as well. But while she’s spinning up more storms offshore, the effect for us is less rain onshore. That’s why for years we’ve been prone to dryer rainy seasons and the droughts that come along with them and at times Saharan dust storms which seem to go on for months. La Nina stirs our meteorological pot in the worst ways possible. El Nino, though, he’s our friend. El Nino is the reverse of La Nina bringing warmer surface temps to the Pacific, with cooler surface temps to the Atlantic along with a whole lot of windshear offshore and a whole lot of rain onshore for South Florida. There’s another related benefit. The historical odds of a major hurricane making landfall in the US during La Nina years – 74%. The odds during El Nino years – 25%. The odds of two or more hurricane landfalls during La Nina years – 48%. The odds of two or more hurricane landfalls during El Nino years – 21%. Now we’re not quite there, as in El Nino, yet – which is why our surface temps are still a bit warmer than historical averages heading into this season, though you’ve no doubt noticed that it started to get rainy before rainy season officially started and the start of rainy season is proving to be the rainiest in years. This is not a coincidence. Yes, hurricane season is here, but so too is our shifting weather pattern. So do not fear, though being prepared just in case is always a good idea, and may the odds forever be in our favor. Or something like that.
- Not yet moving the needle. Governor DeSantis’ first official multi-state swing is in full swing and based on the continued trends in political polling he may need to swing for the fences. Every presidential candidate, even one who telegraphs the move months in advance, always hopes for a campaign boost from an official announcement. And there’s no doubt he got it in the form of money. The record first day haul was impressive. And it’s early, but where he could use a boost which will be important for future fundraising, is in the polls. The first Republican primary polling which has come in post-DeSantis' official announcement is telling a story. A daunting one for him. In South Carolina he’s down 25 to Trump. In California, he’s down 18. And in West Virginia it’s 45...as in a 45-point lead for the 45th President of the United States. There’s also another note within those polls which may speak to potentially bigger issues. Those poll numbers are worse than they were before. It’s only three states, it’s only three polls and it’s way early. There’s an awful lot of time for an awful lot to change. However, for DeSantis – even if the polls are off by a lot – an awful lot will have to change in order for him to have a credible chance of knocking off Donald Trump. And again, while polls may not really matter in any literal sense today, where they can matter is with fundraising tomorrow. Even the most dedicated and capable donors will limit their losses if they perceive their candidate isn’t able to win. Right now, Trump isn’t just leading Republican primary polling, he’s dominating Republican primary polling. That’s true nationally and that’s true in every state where we continue to see polling results coming in. DeSantis has not yet moved the needle – at least in his favor.
- The debt ceiling deal is almost done but what about McCarthy? It took Democrats for Kevin McCarthy to do it. But he did it. Advancing his negotiated debt ceiling compromise with President Biden through the House in a bipartisan vote that’s likely to lead to more of the same in the Senate. But while his bill has been successful in the House, the question now is whether Kevin McCarthy will once again be challenged as Speaker of it. North Carolina Republican Dan Bishop was on the record as saying “It is inescapable to me. It has to be done.” The “it” to which he was referring was a no confidence vote aimed at removing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. And he alone can make that vote happen as a result of one of Kevin McCarthy’s previous negotiations. As a condition of gaining the necessary votes to become House Speaker during the contentious and historic standoff within his ranks, McCarthy agreed that even one Republican member could force a no confidence vote which could force his ouster. Will Bishop follow through? That remains to be seen. But would McCarthy survive it if he did? The answer is similar to the odds of the Senate passing his debt ceiling bill, almost certainly yes.