June's Hurricane History - 2023
Bottom Line: Hurricane season is officially here and with it a disturbance in the Gulf which the National Hurricane Center is tracking. While it’s not expected to develop, it will continue to bring heavy rainfall to our area as it makes its way across Florida. The leadup to this year’s hurricane season has recently proven to be a bit odd. For the second consecutive year we’ve entered the official start of hurricane season without a named storm. However, in recent weeks the National Hurricane Center designated a January system off of the northeast coastline, a subtropical storm. Because it wasn’t detected at the time it remains unnamed, however according to the NHC we’ve already had our first storm of the season.
As we enter this year’s hurricane season, we do so with Southeast Florida having been fortunate in recent years. The last storm to register hurricane force winds in our area was Irma in 2017 as she made her way through the Keys and up Florida’s Gulf Coast. The last hurricane to make a direct landfall in Southeast Florida was Wilma in 2005. Here’s to hoping we add another uneventful year to the tally. On that note there’s improved news as well. After eight years of a La Nina cycle, which creates favorable conditions for development of tropical systems in the Atlantic, we’re currently shifting towards an El Nino cycle, which is the least favorable cycle for Atlantic development. This had led to preseason hurricane forecasts predicting fewer named systems and hurricanes than in recent years.
According to NOAA, here’s what we should expect based on the midpoint of their guidance:
- 30% chance for an above active season
- 15 storms (mid-point of range)
- 7 hurricanes – 3 major (cat 3 or above)
As for what June has historically produced... Since the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes in 1851...
- 5% of all tropical storms
- 3% of all hurricanes
Something to keep in mind is that June storms generally form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June, 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month. Also, historically, about 3% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season... So, statistically we’re already a little of the way through the season as it starts.