A Tipping Point, An Economic Plan & Debate Stakes – Top 3 Takeaways – August 1st, 2023
- The tipping point? Yesterday it happened. A witness testified to then Vice President Joe Biden participating in meetings with the corrupt foreign actors his son Hunter had business relationships with. In fact, Archer testified to witnessing it twenty times. Not one, not two but twenty times that Joe Biden was placed on speaker phone during Hunter’s business dealings. Now up until about a month ago President Biden said he’d never once even talked about business with Hunter and claimed to never even know what he was doing. In recent weeks that's shifted to the current President of the United States having never been in business with his son. And now after 3 art dealer whistleblowers, 2 IRS whistleblowers and an FBI whistleblower all detailing financial schemes involving the Bidens, Hunter and Joe, we had Hunter’s longtime best friend and business associate Devin Archer testify to Vice President Biden “selling the brand” to his business associates. That quote and that testimony directly states that the Vice President of the United States used his influence, as someone who had oversight into the countries in question, for profit. In other words, Archer testified to Joe Biden literally selling our country out. And despite the best efforts of Democrats attempting to spin the testimony into nothing more than Hunter Biden checking on his dear ‘ole dad frequently after the passing of Beau Biden, and dear ‘ole dad checking in on his surviving son after the passing of his brother, which just happened to happen frequently when Hunter was dealing with foreign business associates, whom among us is stupid enough to think that’s all that ever happened. And there’s the not-so-insignificant detail that Joe Biden himself publicly bragged about getting the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating Burisma fired over the threat of losing $1 billion in US foreign aid. At some point there must be a tipping point where even elected Democrats say enough is enough and are willing to put the country ahead of their political interests. Remarkably, the initial reaction from Democrats suggests there isn’t a single one elected who is willing to do it. That said it’s hard to imagine the Biden’s and Democrats can just continue to pretend that none of what’s happened, happened and that none of the testimonies, from the whistleblower's to Devin Archer exist.
- Declaration of Economic Independence. When was the last time you heard of a meaningful “campaign reboot” in any election cycle that eventually led to a win? I’ll share with you what I found. Nothing. That’s not to say it’s never happened, but it is to say that I wasn’t able to find any examples where significant campaign staff layoffs occurred along with a change in messaging that eventually led to a general election win. As Governor DeSantis has hit the “reboot” button, that’s an idea of the extent of the challenge that lies ahead of him – along with the not-so-minor issue of having to overcome the former President of the United States who continues to have a commanding lead in every poll, both state and national, to do it. Perhaps that’s why DeSantis has channeled our country’s founding document, the Declaration of Independence, to do it. Ron DeSantis’ new ten-point Declaration of Economic Independence, rolled out in New Hampshire yesterday, is an economic plan which promises to 1) Take back control of our economy from China 2) Achieve 3% growth by “incentivizing investment and cutting red tape” 3) Unleashing American energy independence 4) Ending ESG 5) Restoring merit and respect for the individual 6) Reforming the education system 7) Fair labor market via securing the border and enforcing immigration laws 8) Reining in the Federal Reserve 9) Opposing bailouts and holding bad actors accountable 10) Fighting reckless and wasteful government spending. Now, his website goes into some detail on what most of that means for those who’re looking for it. But mostly, as Floridians, we know what most of that means because a lot of themes are similar to policies we’ve seen him lead on and enact in Florida. In general, the idea of leaning on economic and pocketbook issues, after months of seemingly failing while focusing on social issues, makes sense. But what I’m not sure is how likely DeSantis’ ten-point plan is to connect quite the way he hopes it will. I personally appreciate his desire to decouple the US economy from China but is that the top issue on the mind of most Americans? Ditto with the ending ESG. Are most Americans really that upset with the Federal Reserve and for that matter how many necessarily know what they even do? Are most people currently demanding that bailouts should be opposed? And how many people are specifically clamoring for an end to wasteful government spending? And my point is this. While there’s merit to what DeSantis has proposed, it’s full of somewhat opaque macroeconomic matters. It’s not exactly a laser focused ten-point plan that speaks directly to the everyday concerns of people who continue to suffer under the weight of inflation which has left most families considerably worse off than they were two and a half years ago. DeSantis’ current presidential campaign reminds me in many ways of his first gubernatorial campaign...The one where you might say he almost monkeyed it up. He’s a strong candidate by way of ideas, and at this point, by track record as Governor of Florida. He’s never been the best messenger. I generally understand why and how the country would be better off economically if a President DeSantis were to enact his Declaration of Economic Independence, but I’m not sure most people who aren’t wonks would. DeSantis needs a historically significant change catalyst for his campaign to be successful. I’m not sure this is it.
- GOP Debate Stakes. While it’s pretty much always true that most presidential candidates are, in reality, resume builders as opposed to serious contenders. Candidates commonly run to raise their profile in the hopes of getting a better job, book deals and ego stroking...this cycle’s GOP debates might be exclusively about that. There’s still no indication that Donald Trump will choose to debate in a few weeks, but there is a strong indication that he really cares what happens on the debate stage. Yesterday the former and perhaps future president “Truthed”: Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President! So, while most presidential candidates are in reality running in the hopes of being the vice president... Trump has made it clear that in his eyes that’s exactly what they’re running for. But one might imagine there’s also strategy behind that statement as well. We all know how much Trump values loyalty and how he feels about those who attack him. What do you think the odds are of Trump picking a running mate who would go scorched earth on him in a debate? While it might prove to be true that debates serve to produce Trump’s running mate. His statement on the stakes of the debates is a way to live in their heads whether he steps on the stage with any of them or not.