AI’s Impact on South Florida & Uncommon Sense – Top 3 Takeaways – August 7th, 2023
- AI’s impact on South Florida. I’ve always been a long-term believer that, provided there’s a semblance of free enterprise that’s in existence in this country, technological innovations create more jobs, not less. As I said earlier this year in discussing AI’s impact on jobs... Will AI be coming for your job? Love it or hate it, the era of AI has arrived. And even now in its infancy it’s already proving to be disruptive. Take, for example, the e-learning company Chegg. (Not long) ago Chegg’s CEO was saying ChatGPT would create a unique user experience which would enhance learning through their platform. (Recently), when the company reported earnings, it became clear that ChatGPT was, in reality, making the need for Chegg’s platform less relevant. The result was a loss of effectively half of the company’s value overnight. One might imagine that many, if not most of the 3,073 jobs on the line at the company are already at risk of succumbing to AI. That’s but one company and one example, What’s the broader outlook? What about your job? Well, if the folks at the World Economic Forum are right...it turns out AI really could be coming for your job. In a detailed 296-page report entitled “Future of Jobs”, AI is set be felt by many and at least over the next five years, is set to take many jobs. In the analysis, 23% of all jobs will be directly impacted by the implementation of AI. What does “impacted” mean exactly? It means 83 million jobs as they exist today won’t exist at all in five years. At the same time, 69 million new jobs, brought about by AI innovation will emerge. So, it’s not all bad news, however you might have noticed that it’s a deficient of 14 million jobs. So yes, AI is theoretically coming for the jobs of a net 14 million Americans over the next five years. As for where the biggest losses are set to occur...those which are most easily automated. At the top of the list were administrative roles, security and factory positions. But while just under a quarter of all jobs are set to be disrupted by AI, the number flips entirely when asking if AI will affect your job. The answer is almost certainly yes. Nearly 75% of all companies sampled are already using AI or fully intend to integrate AI within the next five years. The question I have is what the future beyond five years will be.
- Historically, at least in the United States, technology and innovation have led to more innovation and more opportunity with even more jobs in the end. At the advent of the consumer internet age similar questions were being asked and similar concerns about job loss were brought up. Very quickly we saw that while the internet did lead to the demise of some businesses, it led to far more opportunities and jobs in others. And over 30 years later what industry, what business, what job hasn’t been impacted by the internet in some way? I suspect the advent of the consumer AI age will develop in a similar, albeit faster, way. And that leads me to feel more optimistically about our prospects, given our country’s history, provided we make sound decisions with political leadership along the way. With that said, we have new research on what specifically the impact in South Florida may appear to look like. A recent study by the US Chamber of Commerce entitled: Cities Where AI Threatens Employment the Most - shows South Florida as being very close to “the most”. The #1 most vulnerable city to AI job loss in coming years is said to be Las Vegas based on the chamber’s findings. The second most vulnerable though...the Miami metro. According to the Chamber summation... In terms of the top 10 most susceptible occupations, most of these roles are related to administration, such as cashiers, clerks, data entry, accounting, and bookkeeping. Elsewhere, traditional security guards, housekeepers, bank tellers, retail sales, and door-to-door sales are also considered “at-risk” occupations, which have already been declining. The decline of these occupations has been accelerated by technology and digitalization, which are two factors that will lead to continual job losses within these fields throughout the next five years. And what’s the total impact in terms of lost jobs in South Florida over the next five years according to their estimates...393,920 net jobs...or right at 15% of the total workforce. If that comes to pass that’ll no doubt be disruptive. I’ll remain optimistic that in time opportunities will be more plentiful than before based off innovations brought about by AI that aren’t even on our radar today – however it is appearing increasingly likely that the getting there will be different for many people in specific professions. And that evidently whatever the impact will be – it'll be felt in South Florida more than just about anywhere else. It’s never too early to begin to work on reinventing oneself if you feel like you have a reason to be concerned...
- I’ll drink to that. Adolphis Busch, Walt Disney, George Dayton. Know what they all have in common (I bet most folks need help with the Dayton reference but perhaps you might know where this is going based on the first two people noted)? The founders of Anheuser-Busch, The Walt Disney Company and Target would likely all be rolling over in their graves. In a recent TMZ interview Billy Busch, heir in the Busch family, was asked about Bud Light’s bust after the Dylan Mulvaney fallout. I think my family — my ancestors would have rolled over in their graves. They loved this country because it is a free country and people are allowed to do what they want, but it was never meant to be on a beer can and never meant to be pushed in people's faces. Common sense may not be that common in today’s society. Logic, at times, also seems to be in short supply. And that’s why companies who’ve suffered huge losses in their businesses, have done the stupid things they’ve done and commonly continue to do. Those brands, those businesses, were all built on traditional values. The woke leaders who run them today are among those who tend to look down on them. But the simple statement Billy Busch made is dead on the money. Today we have people who run companies built on traditional values with the customers to match, who chose to attempt to normalize a mental health disorder by forcing it on their customers. It flies in the face of the sensibilities and often the faith of those customers and would no doubt have the founders of those companies rolling over in their graves. But the stand those customers have taken and continue to take in voting with their wallets – I'll drink to that.