2 Degrees of Separation & Campaign Desperation – Top 3 Takeaways – August 11th, 2023
- 2 degrees of separation. When we think of degrees of separation the first thing that’s likely to come to mind is six of them. That's because in the social theory, or social measure (based on what you prefer), every person on this planet is connected within six degrees of separation. For many people it’s also because it was an early 90’s Will Smith movie. By the way, for those who may not know it works like this. Everyone you know is one degree of separation which makes you two degrees away from who they know and so on. If the theory is right, and numerous experiments over the decades have suggested there’s something to it, it’s a fun if not somewhat unifying thought. But actually, my top takeaway today isn’t about social theories – though it is something we’ve just about all been connected by this summer...the heat. We know it’s been bloody hot. We know there’s more heat on the way. But if you’re wondering just how much hotter it’s been this summer compared to most the answer is...2 degrees. 2.1 to be exact. According to NOAA’s weather research the US has experienced temperatures that are an average of 2.1 degrees warmer than usual since the onset of the summer. But if you’re thinking that here at home its felt even hotter than that...you’re right. In Southeast Florida we’ve experienced an average of 4 degrees of separation from our norm. In fact, much of the east coast has. And speaking of our weather...while it’s been hotter this year than usual for most of the country, there’s only one state which has experienced the hottest year on record to date (going back to 1895)...and yes – it's Florida. So, it’s not your imagination. It’s not a case of recentcy bias, it really is and generally has been the hottest year you’ve ever experienced regardless of how long you’ve lived here. Fun fact. There’s only one state which has experienced below average temperatures this year (and it’s one of the last that would come to mind if you’re seeking relief from the heat this time of year), Nevada. Btw, looking outside of our country...misery loved company. While July was just the 11th warmest on record for the entire US, it was the hottest on record world-wide. So, Florida may be alone with record high temps within our country, but it's been the norm around the world. But as far as weather concerns go...that we’re entering mid-August without any threats from tropical activity so far this hurricane season and with the National Hurricane Center’s website consistently and still saying No new tropical cyclones are expected during the next seven days… I’ll take the heat in lieu of hurricanes...and will root for as many degrees of separation from them as we can get. Speaking of separation...
- There’s ever more of it in the polls. It’s been another rough week for Florida’s governor on the presidential campaign trail. This was highlighted by the move earlier this week to replace his campaign manager with his longtime gubernatorial Chief-of-Staff. To be clear, while the odds and the polls strongly point to a certain former President of the United States becoming the Republican Presidential candidate, if for whatever reason Trump’s not the nominee – Ron DeSantis is still the most likely nominee. That said, it’s clear that Ron is realizing the importance of not just turning his campaign’s performance in the polls around but the narrative surrounding it as well. While many people loathe polls at this stage of the primary process, the polls matter for two reasons. Getting on the debate stage which DeSantis has easily done. And keeping the donor money coming which his sinking performance in the polls hasn’t done. A DeSantis supporter expressed his frustration to me about the extent of the coverage and the attention has been paid to DeSantis’ struggles as opposed to those of Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who consistently poll well, well below DeSantis. The analogy I thought of is this. Coming into this political season Trump is like the Yankees and DeSantis is like the Red Sox. They were the biggest names in the same division expected to battle it all season with one of them playing in the World Series in the end. But instead, Trump has played like a classic Yankees team (not this year’s version), while DeSantis has played like this year’s version of the Red Sox. The Nikki Haley’s and Tim Scotts of the race would be like Kansas City and Detroit in this analogy. Not much was expected out of them. Not much is happening with them, therefore there’s not much of a storyline other than they’re still able to compete. But back to DeSantis.
- When a team wins the fans show up, money is made and momentum is built towards a potential championship run. When the team is perceived to be underperforming, fewer fans show up, money starts to dry up and disappointment begins to set in. Polls are a measuring stick used not just to get on the debate stage, but also by big donors who are like team owners, in addition to small dollar donors who are like the fans. The headlines in New York and Boston this season aren’t about how great Baltimore suddenly seems to be and how they’re built for the future. They’re brutal in regards to how big of a disappointment their teams have been. And how big of a disappointment has DeSantis’ campaign been to those who’ve been funding his team? A year ago, today – long before entering the race, and still months in advance of his record setting victory last November, 23% of Republican primary voters supported him for president. Today, after the win last fall, the book this spring and tens of millions of dollars later after having kicked off his campaign, his support has hit a new low for this cycle at an average of 15%. And perhaps the bigger concern is how he’s now viewed. Prior to announcing his presidential bid DeSantis had the highest favorability rating of any nationally known politician. As of today, for the first time, his favorability isn’t just negative. At just 37% nationally it’s now not just lower than President Biden’s and former President Trump’s...but wait for it...Vice President Harris’ too. What appears to be happening is something I warned of last fall when I suggested it would likely be a mistake for DeSantis to enter the race. The left was always going to dislike him. But now many on the right do too. DeSantis’ appeal was/is that he’s Trump without the “bad stuff”. What does it say when Trump’s viewed more favorably than him (and Harris!)? Ron DeSantis has been a great Governor of Florida and I don’t agree with or understand his supporters in our state turning on him as I’ve seen and heard from many. I personally think it’s possible to support Trump – if you’re inclined – and to still appreciate DeSantis - but he did ask for this and his reputation and perhaps even the narrative surrounding his legacy is now at risk, in addition to his presidential campaign. There is hope and the potential for a quick turnaround in his campaign. Trump’s decision this week to not sign the GOP’s loyalty pledge – which would seem to suggest that’s he’s definitively not going to debate is an opportunity for DeSantis. Trump being front and center on the stage throwing punches at DeSantis would likely end badly for him. DeSantis being front and center on that stage with the other candidates taking cracks at him is different. And if he can effectively manage it, there’s the potential for the narrative and perhaps the polls to shift back to his favor. That said – Ramaswamy is one to watch in the first debate. He might stand to gain the most from Trump’s absence.