The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – August 16th
Bottom Line: One week from today we have the first Republican Presidential Primary Debate. The GOP primary process this cycle is one unlike any other as the former President of the United States is not only running for president once again but is doing so while under a series of indictments at state and federal levels. Indictments notwithstanding, the story to date has been one of Trump’s domination in the polls over the GOP field of candidates. Notably, Trump’s lead in national polls remains the highest it’s been yet in this cycle in the wake of the J6 related indictment. It’s too early to know how the Fulton County, Georgia indictment will play politically, though based on what we’ve seen with the previous three, one imagines that at a minimum it won’t hurt him within Republican primary circles. Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls currently (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 55% (+1)
- DeSantis: 15% (-1)
- Ramaswamy: 6% (flat)
- Pence: 5% (flat)
- Haley: 4% (flat)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Christie: 2% (flat)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. There’s obviously been very little movement recently but to the extent there has been...the news continues to be good for Trump and bad for DeSantis specifically. In late February, at the peak of DeSantis’ primary polling in this cycle, the distance between Trump and DeSantis was only 12-points. That lead is now up to forty – the largest Trump advantage of the cycle. DeSantis’ fall has continued amid his campaign reboot which recently culminated in the replacing of his campaign manager. After peaking with 31% support in February, DeSantis has now lost over half of the support he once had nationally and needs a strong debate performance as much as anyone. Speaking of the debate... Who’s qualified?
The Republican Party has issued three qualifying guidelines. Meeting a minimum polling threshold, a minimum fundraising threshold and the signing a loyalty pledge to back the eventual Republican nominee for president. Notably Trump has declined to sign the loyalty pledge. Here are the qualified candidates which have met all three terms of the debate:
- Doug Burgum
- Ron DeSantis
- Nikki Haley
- Tim Scott
- Vivek Ramaswamy
Those who’ve met the polling and funding raising threshold but haven’t yet signed the loyalty pledge:
- Chris Christie
- Mike Pence
- Donald Trump
Pence recently told Fox News he will sign the pledge – though that’s yet to happen and is notable given his recent stance that Trump’s behavior on January 6th means he shouldn’t be president again. Ditto Chris Christie who’s been perhaps the loudest Trump critic in the GOP field since jumping in. Yesterday he also announced he’ll sign the pledge – though it’s not yet happened. What once looked as though it may be a crowded debate field may not be so crowded after all. Until next week...