The GOP Debate, What’s Next & Trump’s Mug Shot – Top 3 Takeaways – August 24th, 2023
- Your perception is reality. Everyone who cares has an opinion about what happened on the debate stage last night. The one that matters is yours. Pundits like to talk about who won or lost debates. The answer is ultimately what you thought was the case. And whether what you witnessed was enough to influence your thought process regarding who you might consider supporting for president. Since the advent of the polling age in the 1930’s, we’ve never seen as many primary voters fully committed one candidate at this stage in an open primary race as we have this year. In many ways former President Donald Trump who was absent from the debate stage last night, has chosen to run as an incumbent President, and that’s likely in part driven by data which shows that he has convicted levels of support, consistent with an incumbent president. On that note it was earlier this week that I highlighted this interesting factoid: As we head into the first Presidential debate of the 2024 cycle Donald Trump is peaking with a polling average of 56% support nationally, with a total of 14 candidates in the race, while Joe Biden is currently averaging 64% support among Democrats with only three total candidates in the race. So, of the 56% of Republican primary voters pledging support to the former and perhaps future president of the United States, how many are with him to the end and how many are at least persuadable? Contextual polling has found 37% of the Republican primary voter base is pledged to Trump no matter what happens between now and the end of the primary process. 37% of the Republican primary voter base, remains persuadable and 25% of the Republican primary voter base is committed to voting for a non-Trump candidate. What this means is that last night’s debate mattered to most Republican primary voters – 63% of them to be exact. And what it also means is that 19% of recently polled Trump supporters are open to supporting a different candidate. The question today is whether many of them were persuaded sufficiently to make this a more competitive race. And if they were, whether there is an emerging consensus Trump contender. Everyone will have their opinions of what happened last night. It’s yours that matters. And that takes us too...
- What comes next. Over the past 14 Republican Presidential Primary processes, voters have proven to be more decisive by this stage of the process than perception may have one believe. Since the 1964 primary process there’s only been one cycle, the 2008 Republican primary process, where the polling leader heading into the first debate didn’t turn out to be the eventual Republican nominee. In the 2008 cycle John McCain was polling third behind Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, on the date of the first debate. In addition to what’s been a powerful, if not somewhat surprising, historical trend of decisiveness by GOP primary voters, Trump’s lead all but assures that any candidate who is not in the top three by this time next week has no realistic path forward towards the Republican nomination. That said there could be a bit of a game of presidential chicken that plays out from here. There are two tactics GOP primary candidates can play. Taking Trump head on, on the issues and attempting to win. Or wait to see if Trump’s legal woes result in prison time during the primary voting season that could potentially alter the race in a way that might lead to current Trump supporters seeking an alternative. That wildest of wildcards may have the potential for some of the presidential primary ankle biters to stay in the race longer than they probably should or ordinarily would in a typical presidential primary process. On that note, the question is, will any of the candidates who clearly aren’t in the top three – starting with those who didn’t even qualify for the debate – begin to drop out of the race by suspending their campaigns? And speaking of wildcards here’s one more. Did Virginia Governor Glynn Youngkin, who’s not running for president, but who still hasn’t ruled it out (but that is being actively recruited to run by those seeking a Trump alternative) see enough out of Ron DeSantis or any of the other candidates last night to stay out of the race? And related...did donors see enough out of the candidates they’d been backing to continue to keep the money flowing? While the first presidential primary debate may seem to some like it's the beginning of the primary process. In reality, history, combined with Trump’s massive lead, suggests it’s already over for most of the candidates. And speaking of Trump...
- A mug shot. For those who’ve been relishing the Trump indictment season it’s been missing just one thing. A mug shot. While much can and has been said about the questionable interpretation of the law by prosecutors in New York, Georgia, and at the DOJ, there had been at least the pretense of decorum in the booking process for the prior three indictments. It appears that today's forth booking in Fulton County Georgia, will be different. Quoting Fulton County Sheriff Pat Labat, an elected Democrat, he said that his office will handle according to “normal practices, and so it doesn’t matter your status. We’ll have mug shots ready for you”. On that note the first two booked on related charges to Trump who will be tried along with the former President, lawyer John Eastman, and business owner Scott Hall who were booked on Tuesday, have since had their mug shots publicly posted. Trump’s, the mug shot which will be seen around the world, is likely not far behind. Will a mug shot of the former president alter public perception? Will it potentially alter the race? That’s unclear. But Trump’s indictment and likely mugshot are likely to be bigger news than last night’s debate by the end of the day.