Florida Fared Well, The Economy & Things That Make You Go Hmm... – Top 3 Takeaways – August 31st, 2023
- Florida fared well. Power outages...check. Localized flooding in western communities and roads...check. A few examples of Floridians being foolish...check. A lot of debris cleanup to come...check. But all in all, for what briefly became a category four hurricane on its approach to the Big Bend, Florida fared well considering what could have happened had it made landfall in a more populated area of the state. By midday Wednesday as Hurricane Idalia crossed the Florida-Georgia line, there were 268,000 Florida customers without power. This morning that total is down to 142,000 (there are currently more power outages related to Idalia outside of Florida than in it). Who does and doesn’t have power isn’t the end all be all in determining the full scope of a Hurricane’s impact, but it does paint a picture as to how many people faced some degree of adversity as a result of the storm. The answer, as measured by the total power footprint within the state of Florida is about 2.4% of Floridians. That’s not bad considering 11 million or nearly half of the state’s population was originally located in a county with an emergency declaration in place. By way of comparison, last year Hurricane Ian left 36% of Floridians without power and 2017’s Hurricane Irma left 64% of Floridians without power for a time. There are what will likely be extremely sad stories of lost homes and businesses by those in Florida’s most vulnerable communities at the point of impact, and rebuilding which will need to take place as a result. But most importantly as of midday yesterday, there were no deaths directly attributed to the impact of the hurricane (FHP identified two deaths in auto accidents during the storm). All in all, Florida fared well.
- Not so fast. As in the economy grew not as fast as we’d most recently been told. Last month’s second quarter GDP report indicated that the US economy grew at a 2.4% pace, which came in ahead of expectations. Yesterday we received a revision which brought economic growth back to the original expectations at 2.1%. On the one hand it might not seem like much, on the other hand it’s a rate of growth that’s 14% lower than we’d originally been told. And that comes on the back of job openings, while still plentiful, dropping to 2.5-year lows in July and the ADP Private Sector Jobs Report showing just 177,000 jobs being added last month, which was also below expectations. Economists have grown extremely bullish of late currently projecting economic growth at a 5.9% rate for the third quarter. So now we have job openings reflecting pandemic level lows, private sector jobs growth to match, and the economy revised to slower growth. That’s three economic signs in a row pointing towards an economy that’s likely to reflect much slower growth than what economists are currently forecasting. But while the economy may not grow at 5.9% in the current quarter as is expected, wages have grown by 5.9% year-over-year according to the ADP Report. And that’s encouraging for a couple reasons. The obvious, and the not-so-obvious. For a second consecutive month wages nationally have grown at a rate that’s faster than the net inflation rate, but also the “major categories” inflation rate, that excludes food and energy prices which are the most volatile. This indicates that there’s likely a new trend in place in which the average American is not falling further behind due to the effects of inflation for the first time in two years. That provides hope that in South Florida, where inflation has been running the hottest in the country, 6.9% most recently, and the average family still has been falling further behind by the month with wages rising 5.8% most recently, that we may soon too, turn a corner where inflation isn’t growing quite so fast and that wages are at least rising to match. Speaking of not so fast things...
- What’s up with our view of President Biden? Lots of polls have shown lots of results that suggest most of us don’t approve of what he’s doing and don’t want him to run. There are also those which have reflected our outright questioning of whether he’s physically capable of doing the job. The one yesterday that caught my attention was this one. The question asked nationally by Sinclair Media... Do you think President Biden is mentally and physically fit to serve another term? With over 13,000 respondents, 86% said no. Not 40, not 50 not 60 or 70 but 86% of Americans responded that he’s not physically or mentally able to do the job any longer. And btw, that poll is consistent with a just conducted AP poll which asked the question differently, they asked if he’s “too old” to serve another term...77% in that poll said yes. And while that says something about President Biden, and our perception of him, it says just as much about us...or more specifically and correctly stated...Democrats. In the same poll in which 77% of people said Joe Biden is “too old” to serve a second term, including 70% of Democrats... 82% of Democrats said they’ll either probably or definitely will vote for him for president. What does it say when almost everyone agrees that Joe Biden isn’t mentally and physically fit to serve another term? What does it say when even the overwhelming majority of Democrats agree and believe that he shouldn’t even be running for president...yet almost all of them say they’ll be voting for him again? Recently the left flipped out when a poll showed that a fifth of Republicans who said they believed Trump committed a crime, or crimes, intend to vote for him again. What does it say when almost every Democrat says Joe can’t even physically do the job, but they’ll be voting for him? There’s a lot of moral relativism that being injected into a potential rematch between the two. By the numbers, there’s a lot more soul searching for Democrats to do. How little do you really care about this country and how much do you have to take freedom for granted, in order to say...uh yeah. That dog won’t hunt. But I’m voting for it to lead the country anyway? That mindset does, however, explain a lot about how we got here and how a fat man with an erection is allowed in a sorority.