The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – September 20th
Bottom Line: We’re now a week away from the second Republican Primary Presidential Debate as we advance deeper into primary season. In recent weeks we’d seen one GOP candidate drop out, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, but had seen very little movement otherwise. Only two candidates were consistently polling higher than they were prior to that first debate: Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. But this past week we’ve seen the most movement since the current field of candidates was established and you can add a third candidate of risers to the mix. Donald Trump. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates in the face of four looming criminal cases which he faces heading into next year’s presidential election year.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into which candidates will be eligible to participate in the 2nd debate September 27th (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 57% (+4)
- DeSantis: 13% (-1)
- Ramaswamy: 7% (flat)
- Haley: 6% (flat)
- Pence: 5% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (flat)
- Scott: 3% (+1)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. It’s notable that Trump not only experienced a significant boost in pledged support among Republican primary voters over the past week, but also where he now stands...at a new polling high in this cycle. Trump’s 57% support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were being polled alongside him. And not only has Trump hit a new high-water mark in this cycle, but DeSantis, his top competition to date, has taken yet another hit over the past week, hitting a new low in the process. With a 44% national advantage, that’s most recently been growing, it’s clear Trump’s strategy of skipping the GOP debates is sound and all but guarantees he’ll sit them all out – including the one closest to home in Miami. The primary contest is still about what happens in individual states, as opposed to national polls, however those have been trending in Trump’s direction as well. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of greater than 30-points in each of the first four states to vote.
As of today, two of the participants in the first debate have yet to meet the requirements to participate in the next debate – Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson. Until next week...