Q&A of the Day – How Florida’s Historically Blue Counties Are Trending
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio What about the other blue counties, especially Broward?
Bottom Line: Today’s note is in response to my monthly update of voter registration information for Palm Beach County which continued to illustrate the county’s move towards the right throughout the course of this non-election year. Year-to-date the GOP registration advantage over Democrats in Florida grew by 204,976 voters through August, which is the most recent statewide information complied by the Florida Division of Elections. So, in addressing today’s question, how much of that change has come from Florida’s “blue” counties? I’ll start by breaking out the counties where Democrats held a voter registration advantage entering this year.
Of Florida’s 67 counties, these are the 13 in which Democrats held a voter registration advantage as of December 31st of last year:
- Alachua, Broward, Duval, Gasden, Hillsborough, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Miami Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, St. Lucie
So, what’s changed in these counties through the first eight months of this year? Quite a bit with a clear trend. Republicans have gained ground in every blue county in Florida this year. Here are the year-to-date gains Republicans have made relative to Democrats in each county:
- Alachua: 4,990 voters
- Broward: 7,974 voters
- Duval: 4,558 voters
- Gasden: 2,572 voters
- Hillsborough: 9,638 voters
- Leon: 4,576 voters
- Liberty: 132 voters (county flipped to GOP majority)
- Madison: 228 voters
- Miami Dade: 29,000 voters
- Orange: 26,670 voters
- Osceola: 10,962 voters
- Palm Beach: 18,865 voters
- St. Lucie: 1,977 voters
That’s a GOP gain of 122,142 net voters across the 13 previously blue counties thus far this year. Here’s another way of looking at what’s been happening throughout the course of this year. 60% of the gains made by Republicans in voter registrations this year have come in the blue counties. That’s a big headline that comes out of this analysis. The continued success by Republicans in Florida hasn’t primarily been due to red counties becoming redder, but rather by every blue country becoming less blue, including one county that’s flipped to a Republican majority in the process.
Last November’s record Republican wins in Florida included eight of the 13 Democrat majority counties breaking for Republicans at the top of the ticket. Given these significant voter registration trends in these counties this year, there’s reason to think we may be primed to potentially see a repeat in next year’s elections. Especially if these trends continue to pace in this direction, at this rate, until then. Presidential election years always result in large numbers of new voter registrations from those who’ve become age eligible to vote and from those who’ve moved to the state. It will be as interesting as it will be revealing to see what those trends look like as we head towards March’s presidential primary election in Florida and eventually the August primary elections in Florida next year. For now, the trend continues to be the Republicans’ friend in Florida – especially in the traditionally blue counties.