A Political Movement in the Making?
Bottom Line: It was November of 2010. The Tea Party led-red wave flipped record numbers of Republicans into power. It was also the last time as many Americans leaned towards Republicans politically as they do today. That’s according to Gallup’s monthly partisan ID tracker. For well over twenty years Gallup has sampled Americans monthly on two questions. The first: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? And for those who say independent they’re asked this question: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? The number has bounced around a bit over the years, but one trend has been pretty consistent. Most Americans have been more likely to lean towards Democrats than Republicans. For that reason, it’s a bit of interesting news when Republicans hold an edge at all...though that’s now been the case for much of this year. But what’s become most interesting is that now, for the first time since November of 2010, 49% of Americans currently lean towards Republicans when prompted compared to 43% who lean towards Democrats.
We’re over 12 months away from Election Day, so who knows if this trend holds. But two takeaways are clear here. Republicans have been building political momentum throughout this year and if this level of support were to hold, or improve, we’re looking at a political movement in the making. One that most likely would be the biggest MAGA movement yet. Speaking of MAGA, what this data also shows is that the Democrat efforts to brand Republicans as “MAGA extremists” appears to be about as lame politically as it sounds when stated. The biggest question for Republicans near-term is whether damage will be done politically in the eyes of those who haven’t historically leaned their way by virtue of their issues picking a leader for Speaker of the House.