The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – November 8th, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re now under a year away from Election Day and historically inside of a window in which eventual presidential primary winners have moved into front runner status in route to winning the party’s nomination. The biggest news of the past week in the race has been what’s emanated from Donald Trump’s civil trial in New York City and Monday’s endorsement by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds of Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis for president. The past week has also provided an opportunity to see how the race would begin to shake out after the first credible candidate to dropout, former Vice President Mike Pence, exited the race.
Tonight’s also the night of the 3rd Republican Party debate in Miami. Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s currently 45-points. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into debate eligibility (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 58% (-1%)
- DeSantis: 13% (flat)
- Haley: 9% (+1)
- Ramaswamy: 4% (-1)
- Christie: 3% (+1)
- Scott: 2% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
- Hutchinson 1% (flat)
It was widely believed that Nikki Haley stood to benefit the most from Mike Pence’s exit and we have seen an early indication that may be the case as Haley has reached a new polling high in this cycle this week as she continues to put pressure on DeSantis for the status of the top Trump challenger. Notably, Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination. Trump’s support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s of course what happens in individual states, that determine the winner. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 30-points in Iowa, 32-points in New Hampshire, 30-points in South Carolina and 38-points in Nevada. Notably Nikki Haley has surged past Ron DeSantis for the second position in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Until next week...