Q&A of the Day – 2024 Presidential Filling Deadlines & About A Potential Manchin No Labels Bid
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Today’s Entry: Brian, I’m confused about something that I’m sure you can explain. There’s talk about a Manchin “No Labels” bid (maybe even with Romney) but haven’t some of the deadlines to get on ballots already passed making it too late for new candidates to run in many states?
Bottom Line: There is a lot that is confusing about procedural stuff that goes into running for president and qualifying for primary ballots. What you're asking about is actually two separate considerations, so I’ll walk you through both. The filing deadlines that are currently in play are for party primaries next year. Where this is especially relevant is in context to the Democrat presidential primary, where speculation continues to swirl about a potential credible challenge to President Biden’s reelection bid. For example, many have wondered if California Governor Gavin Newsom would enter the race. I’ll start there as they’re the deadlines that are important for would-be Democrat and Republican presidential candidates. The ship has already sailed to qualify in a few states.
States where filing deadlines have already passed:
- Alabama
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
Additionally, today (November 14th), is the filing deadline in Arkansas. Florida’s filing deadline is the next one which comes up on November 30th. Most states have filing deadlines that come up by mid-December. Given that challengers to President Biden or former President Trump already face long odds heading into the election season, one might imagine that missing the filing deadlines in four states would further serve to keep additional late comers to the race in either party on the sidelines. But in the context of a potential Joe Manchin “No Labels” bid, or in the case of some other 3rd party the primary filing deadlines aren’t in play.
Many minor parties have conventions with delegates or committees that select the candidates who will run on their parties’ ticket as opposed to having primary elections where voters vote on who the parties’ candidates should be. In these instances, the candidates are automatically on the general election ballots for the presidential election next November, provided that the party has gained access to appear on voters’ ballots in a state. That’s often an ongoing challenge for minor parties. The Green Party, for example, had access to 44 state ballots in the 2016 presidential election but only 30 in the 2020 election. Currently the Green Party has only qualified in 17 states, including Florida, and Washington D.C. for the 2024 election. That number is likely to rise, but these are the types of battles minor parties are most often focused on during the primary season in election cycles as opposed to contested primaries sent to voters. The most successful minor party in gaining ballot access in recent cycles has been the Libertarian Party. They were on all 50 state ballots in the 2020 presidential election, however based on performance, and changes to state law in some locations, that dropped to 30 states and D.C. in the 2022 midterm elections. They’re actively working to attempt to get on all ballots once again for 2024, though that is in doubt – especially in New York which passed a restrictive law raising minor party thresholds. As for Manchin and a potential No Labels bid...
The No Labels group, which still hasn’t committed to running a presidential candidate next year, has actively been working to qualify for state ballots which may determine whether they will choose to move forward with a presidential ticket. As of the most recent reporting No Labels had qualified for ballot access in 12 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. As you noted, following his decision not to run for reelection as a senator, many are speculating about a potential Joe Manchin No Labels bid (following a No Labels event he attended in July) or Mitt Romney, or both. The biggest question, at least right now, probably isn’t whether Manchin or Romney are interested in running for President under the No Labels banner – or whether No Labels wants one or both to run. The biggest question is how successful No Labels is in gaining ballot access. One might imagine that it’s unlikely high-profile candidates like Manchin and Romney would subject themselves to the certain failure of presidential bids if they’re not on ballots in at least almost all states. It’s also less likely that No Labels would want to expend the resources to run a ticket that would have no chance of mounting a credible campaign.
There’s a lot of time for all minor parties to gain access to 2024’s general election ballots, but of course the longer it takes to gain access, the less time and resources that are dedicated to mounting credible campaigns. This is likely why the Green Party recently opted to go with a well-known and familiar candidate in Jill Stein and it’s no doubt why No Labels would want a high-profile ticket as well. Notably, it’s easier to gain access as an independent candidate in many states, than it is under a minor party candidate banner. Incidentally, that’s the main reason why Cornel West backed out of a Green Party bid in lieu of an independent run. It’s also why RFK Jr.’s going that route as well.