New Speaker, Same Policy & Florida’s Resilient Housing Market - Top 3 Takeaways – November 15th, 2023
- Ever the same. The great Rob Thomas’ sentiment is perhaps the best reference point for my top takeaway today. On Tuesday House Speaker Mike Johnson advanced a cleaner continuing resolution to continue to debt fund the federal government into the new year than former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had done when it was used as the excuse by Florida Congressmen Matt Gaetz and seven other angry Republicans (who teamed up with all House Democrats) to oust him. A different House Speaker but a result that was...ever the same. Quoting House Speaker Mike Johnson prior to yesterday’s vote: We're not surrendering, we're fighting. But you have to be wise about choosing the fights. You got to fight fights that you can win. Which he’s absolutely right about, just as former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was before him. The fact of the matter is that when you control only one-third of the federal government the best you can typically do from that party’s political perspective is to not make the existing policy worse. Which, from a fiscal conservative’s perspective is exactly what the Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats want to do as the push has been on for the president’s $100 billion foreign aid package that Mike Johnson won’t touch. It wasn’t Kevin McCarthy’s fault that Joe Biden became president and Democrats control the senate. It’s not Mike Johnson’s either. That’s why at least for now the policy which has passed in the House with Democrat and Republican votes is ever the same.
- What isn’t the same is the response by Matt Gaetz and the seven other GOP malcontents. In fact, on the same day House Speaker Mike Johnson put before the floor a continuing resolution that was cleaner than what he used as justification to oust McCarthy, Gaetz was promoting “MAGA Mike” on his X feed – while still doing what he most commonly still does, which is bash Kevin McCarthy – whom he referred to yesterday as a weak, pathetic, husk of a man. And in the most overt way yet – Gaetz further tipped his hand when he filed a ethics complaint against Kevin McCarthy yesterday for an alleged assault against Republican Congressman Tim Burchett who has alleged that the former House Speaker took a crack at the Congressman, who was one of the seven other Republicans to vote to oust McCarthy. McCarthy denies this, but regardless, it’s clear what’s been on Gaetz’s mind. But then again, if you were under Congressional investigation for alleged sex trafficking of a minor, bribery and fraud, something your friend and former associate Joel Greenberg pled guilty to and was sentenced to 11 years for, that might be on your mind too. And the reason I mention this one again is because we’ve now come full circle with everything that I outlined would happen. As mentioned immediately after Mike Johnson was voted House Speaker: All the ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy ever really was, was a personal vendetta carried out by Matt Gaetz and his small gang of malcontents who almost like being the center of attention as much as him. Gaetz will take a victory lap and lean on the ignorance of others who still don’t know or don’t want to account for why he has spear-headed a yearlong effort to circumvent the conservative agenda all because his top concern isn’t a conservative agenda. It isn’t what’s in the best interests of this country. It hasn’t been serving his constituents. It’s been about the House ethics investigation that’s ongoing into Gaetz for alleged bribery and sex-trafficking. The investigation that he blackmailed McCarthy into attempting to end and that resulted in a personal vendetta against him when he didn’t. And btw, we still don’t know the status of the investigation into Gaetz, and I’ve been actively attempting to get an update as to its status since Mike Johnson took over (though notably the House Speaker can’t unilaterally end an ethics investigation). But the point is this. What’s changed from a policy standpoint? And if Gaetz and his small group of malcontents were so altruistic, why aren’t they now seeking Mike Johnson’s ouster? Where is there any meaningful backlash? As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. The fact of the matter is that I’ve never had a “thing” for Kevin McCarthy, as some have suggested, and I’ve never had it “out” for Matt Gaetz either. Smooth talking politicians with ulterior motives are nothing new. Gaetz just happens to be an especially adept one and he’s from Florida which adds to the sensitivity for some. The facts aren’t always what we want them to be but that doesn’t change them, and I’ll never steer away from them. Here’s to hoping that both Mike Johnson and Republicans generally perform better next year – especially in November – which is what’s required to undo detrimental policy that’s previously been passed.
- A sign of strength. The performance of Florida’s housing market has been so strong for so long that there’s now a long line of people who’ve bet against it that have been proved very wrong. Consider that at the peak of the post-pandemic frenzy market two years ago the median sales price for a home in Palm Beach County was $500,000 – having appreciated a whopping 20% year-over-year. To some it seemed unsustainable. But there was one key that showed why it was...cash. Two years ago, when the median sales price jumped 20%, the percentage of homes being purchased with cash rose even faster with 25% more homes being purchased with cash than in the previous year. That was an indication that there was a significant supply and demand imbalance that’d continue to push prices higher. And two years later where are we today? The frenzy market is long gone but higher prices are not. The median sales price is now $565k – another 13% increase. And there are still signs of strength supporting the current housing market beyond the large percentage that are still paying with cash. Nationally the average mortgage delinquency rate is 1.9%. In Florida, every major housing market remains below the national average. The highest DQ rate is currently the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro at 1.6%. Florida’s default rate overall is currently the 15th best in the country. In Indian River County the change over the same period of time was an increase from $345k to $365k. There’s no doubt housing remains expensive but there’s also no doubt that Florida’s housing markets continue to show signs of strength.