The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – November 15th, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re now under a year away from Election Day and historically inside of a window in which eventual presidential primary winners have moved into front runner status in route to winning the party’s nomination. While the third debate took place a week ago today in Miami, the biggest news of the past week was what came afterwards, with South Carolina Senator Tim Scott joining Mike Pence as the 2nd credible candidate to exit the race. Speaking of the debate...
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s currently 45-points. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into debate eligibility (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 59% (+1)
- DeSantis: 14% (+1)
- Haley: 9% (flat)
- Ramaswamy: 5% (+1)
- Christie: 3% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
- Hutchinson 1% (flat)
It was widely believed that Nikki Haley stood to benefit the most from Mike Pence’s exit. The same sentiment has been applied with Scott’s exit from the race. However, the early indications show Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy each picking up a point of support most recently. The race remains one that’s focused on who came emerge as the top non-Trump candidate in this race. Notably, Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination. Trump’s support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s of course what happens in individual states, that determine the winner. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 30-points in Iowa, 32-points in New Hampshire, 30-points in South Carolina and 38-points in Nevada. Notably Nikki Haley has surged past Ron DeSantis for the second position in New Hampshire and South Carolina.