The Republican Presidential Primary Race – January 3rd, 2024
Bottom Line: Election Day is now only ten months away with the first contest of the primary season under two weeks away. The Iowa Caucus happens two Monday’s from now – the 15th. It’s safe to say that the pace of the election season is set to pick up considerably from here. As we’re closing in on the first votes of the 2024 election cycle being cast, we’re doing so with an added bit of drama in multiple states. The decision by the Colorado Supreme Court to strike Donald Trump’s name from the state’s primary ballot citing the insurrection clause in the constitution has created a bit of a cloud over the process. First, in Colorado, the state’s GOP has appealed the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. Due to the appeal the ruling has been stayed, meaning that as of today, Donald Trump would be on Colorado’s ballot. What’s more is that the state’s deadline for inclusion on primary ballots is Friday. If the United States Supreme Court doesn’t rule in the case by then Trump will appear on Colorado’s ballot. In other words, despite the action of the Colorado Supreme Court, the only way Trump won’t appear on the state’s ballot is if the Supreme Court agrees with the Colorado Supreme Court decision before Friday (which is unlikely for multiple reasons). For now, the greater impact of the Colorado ruling is what transpired in Maine as a result of the ruling. Citing the Colorado Supreme Court ruling Maine’s secretary of state removed Trump’s name from that state’s ballot. That decision likewise faces a legal challenge to the state’s Superior Court. There are multiple other states where legal challenges to Trump’s access exist and where similar actions may be attempted. So, while we wait and watch how the Supreme Court will handle these legal challenges, as of today Trump is currently positioned to appear on 49 of the 50 state ballots with Maine the exception. As for the state of the race...
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s currently 5-points. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one non-Trump candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls:
- Trump: 63%
- DeSantis: 11%
- Haley: 11%
- Ramaswamy: 4%
- Christie: 3%
- Hutchinson: 1%
Trump’s lead nationally isn’t just dominate; he’s peaking at the right time with his largest lead of the cycle heading into the Iowa Caucus. Meanwhile, in the race to be the top non-Trump candidate, Nikki Haley is also peaking while DeSantis’ slow fade has continued leading to a dead heat between the two of them.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s what happens in individual states that determine the winner. On that note, Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 33-points over DeSantis in Iowa, 22-points over Haley in New Hampshire, 30-points over Haley in South Carolina and 38-points over DeSantis in Nevada. Notably, Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination.