Q&A of the Day – Will Democrats Dump Joe Biden for Michelle Obama at the Convention?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Do you think DEMs will dump Biden for Michelle Obama at the convention?
Bottom Line: There are many ways to measure the weakness of an incumbent president running for reelection. That questions like this one have become hot topics at the onset of the nomination season pretty much says it all about the historical weakness President Joe Biden finds himself in as he concludes his third year in office this week. The last time that there was a serious primary challenge to an incumbent president was 1980 when Ted Kennedy gave Jimmy Carter a serious run for his money – picking up over a third of the Democrat’s support in the primary. While the DNC did their best to clear the deck for President Biden heading into this election cycle, seeking to avoid a 1980 repeat (does anyone doubt that Gavin Newsom wanted to run for example?) – President Biden’s record low approval ratings at this point in the cycle might have them regretting that decision in real-time. In fact, the concern in Democrat circles has become so intense that Congressman Dean Phillips, whom next to no one has heard of, but who represents the closest thing to a credible challenger in the Democrat nomination process is getting a serious look. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman just gave the House Democrat from Minnestoa $1 million for his campaign to try to get his name on the map. Quoting Ackman: (this) is by far the largest investment I have ever made in someone running for office, and I am making this investment at a high-risk, but critically important moment for his campaign. Biden is polling poorly against @realDonaldTrump, and his numbers are only going to get worse as he ages, and he is not looking good as it is. As Dean rises in the polls and Biden deteriorates, the Democratic party is going to have to choose a candidate that can beat the Republican nominee. If by then, as I expect, Dean is polling substantially better than Biden against Trump, I predict that the party will choose Dean Phillips over Biden. The party will have no choice. If that’s not the sound of desperation what is? And what does it say that the largest political donation made by one of the world’s richest men is to Dean Phillips?
I’ve mentioned the recent Ackman example for a couple of reasons. It’s not just that there’s a perception of Democrat desperation in certain circles – it's that before Democrats have even started their nomination process there are hard examples of the desperation being real. As the saying goes, desperate people do desperate things...which takes us to today’s question.
When weighing whether Democrats would drop Joe Biden at the convention it’s important to put the entire process in perspective. First and foremost, it’s too late for a Democrat challenger to Joe Biden to enter the race to gain ballot access in all 50 states. That means that the Democrat nomination process features three Democrats. President Biden, Marrianne Williamson and Dean Phillips. That matters because those are the only three candidates who will potentially win delegates towards the Democrat Presidential nominating process. The first candidate to win 1,973 pledged delegates to the convention will clinch the nomination at the convention. What this means is that we’re now at a stage in the process where it’s not possible for Democrat voters to nominate a candidate that isn’t named Biden, Phillips or Williamson. And what that means, is that as far as the nomination process goes, the only way there isn’t a winner by the convention is if the three of them were to split the available delegates in a way in which no one obtained 1,973 out of the 3,945 unallocated delegates. If that were to happen, which is obviously extremely unlikely, there would be a contested convention in which all bets would be off as to who the eventual nominee would be. As it stands now, that is the only scenario that doesn’t require somewhat conspiratorial considerations to occur for Michelle Obama, or for anyone other than those who are on ballots, to potentially become the Democrat’s nominee. That leaves us with what the conspiratorial considerations would be.
It’s likely safe to say that if by minor miracle Phillips or Williamson won the Democrat’s nomination, that there’s no way they would bow out of the way for someone else at the convention. So, the Michelle Obama and like theories go like this. Joe Biden wins the needed delegates to clinch the Democrat nomination through the primary process. At the convention President Biden decides to drop out of the race, likely citing health considerations, releasing his pledged delegates. Biden would then endorse Michelle Obama, or whomever, encouraging his delegates at the convention to make that person the Democrat’s Presidential nominee. Is that possible? Yes. How likely is that?
On the one hand you have the obvious which is that Joe Biden is a historically unpopular president who appears to the average person to be on the decline. That would seem to make the conspiratorial suggestion seem far more plausible. On the other hand, there’s something which must happen in that scenario which is only in one person’s control. Joe Biden himself must go along with it. None of us can imagine the ego that’s required to successfully run for President of the United States – let alone to be the President of the United States. For someone with that kind of ego to bow out at a convention, essentially going down as an incumbent president in disgrace leaving that as your legacy aftertime a lifetime in politics is a lot for anyone to assume.
Occasionally conspiracy theories prove true. Usually, they do not. And for that reason, and at this stage of the process, what I think about the Michelle Obama convention conspiracy theory is that it’s just that. It’s possible but unlikely. That’s why Bill Ackman is putting big money behind trying to win with Dean Phillips. That's the non-conspiratorial way for a Democrat not named Joe Biden to emerge from this process.