The Presidential Nomination Races Are Over...Unless - Top 3 Takeaways – January 24th, 2024
- History was made. The former and perhaps future President of the United States, Donald Trump just did what previously hadn’t been done in Republican Party politics since the onset of the current nomination process was established – with Iowa serving as the first state to vote with a caucus and New Hampshire serving as the first primary state in 1972. He won both. Until last night only incumbent Republican presidents had won both Iowa and New Hampshire. And that’s as strong of an indication as to what the Republican nomination process really is. It’s effectively a contested nomination of an incumbent president who’s highly popular in his party. Donald Trump’s approval rating with Republicans on the day he left office, in the wake of the second impeachment over January 6th related festivities, was 85% among Republicans. Only 11% of Republicans disapproved of the former and perhaps future President of the United States at what was polled to be his weakest point in power. And if 85% of Republicans approved of him then, why wouldn’t at least 85% of them approve of him right now? This is why it was always a fool’s errand by any and all Republican challengers to think they could take him on and win head-to-head. While polls over the past year consistently showed that close to half of Republican primary voters were open to supporting a different candidate, the reality on the ground was always likely to be significantly different. At a minimum any GOP challenger to Trump would effectively have to convince at least 36% of Republicans who approved of Donald Trump as president as he boarded Air Force One for the last time in route to Mar-A-Lago – to vote for them instead. This was never going to happen. That’s why I told Ron DeSantis prior to the 2022 midterm elections that he shouldn’t run for president. And it’s also why...
- It’s Over. Trump’s dominating win in the early primary state where he’d consistently polled the lowest and where Nikki Haley had polled the highest says it all. The Republican nomination process in the minds and hearts of Republican primary votes is effectively over. There is no path for Nikki Haley to win from here, not that there really ever was. But while it’s clear that Republican voters are solidly decided on who they want their presidential nominee to be...it may not be the end for Nikki’s campaign. This Republican nomination process featured three types of candidates this cycle – two of which are typical. The presumptive nominee in Donald Trump, credible candidates in Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and a host of political social climbers headlined by Vivek Ramaswamy. It’s always easy to understand the rational of the political social climbers running for president. What was much harder to understand was the rationale of the credible candidates in this cycle – most notably Ron DeSantis. He’s a smart guy. He should have known that attempting to be “Trump without the bad stuff”, wasn’t going to work – because again – almost all of the people who associated Trump with “bad stuff” weren’t and aren’t Republican primary voters. Rather than staying out of the fray and positioning himself for a 2028 run – he now has a greatly diminished brand on the national stage that he’ll have to work to rebuild (if he can). Nikki Haley’s strategy, on the other hand, made a bit more sense to me. She’s been out of politics, she didn’t have anything to lose, and there was always the chance that the lawfare directed at Donald Trump could have an impact during the primary race. For that reason, it doesn’t make sense for her to drop out now or there never really was a purpose for her entering this race. While there remains a chance it could be pushed back, as of now Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s January 6th case, the one of the four pending criminal cases against Trump that geographically is the most perilous for him, is set to begin March 4th – or just before Super Tuesday. Could that trial, and the potential threat of a Trump conviction in it, impact the votes of would-be Trump primary supporters? I doubt it – but it’s possible. However, more to the point, could an actual conviction in that trial, which if it starts in early March, could still come in the mist of the primary season – swing some Republican primary voters away from Trump? I still doubt it, however these are the unprecedented things we won’t know for sure until and unless we get there. For that reason, it makes sense for Haley to be the last non-Trump person standing in this race. Including right into the convention just in case a window of opportunity presents itself for her. As of today, the Republican nomination race is over in the minds of Republican primary voters and in reality, has been since the moment the former and perhaps future president announced he would run once again. But the legal wildcard remains, and that was always the potential angle for a competing candidate like Nikki Haley to pursue. And it’s not just that the Republican race is over unless...
- It is for Democrats too. In the history of the current incarnation of a two-party system an incumbent president running for reelection has never lost a party’s nomination. Given that Joe Biden is the most unpopular president in American history at this stage of his presidency (since the onset of the polling age anyway), if it was ever going to happen – this would be the cycle where it would happen. But if it was going to happen – it would have happened in New Hampshire. There were only two Democrat candidates on New Hampshire’s primary ballots last night. Neither were Joe Biden. That Joe Biden won New Hampshire’s (unsanctioned by the DNC) primary easily with a write-in campaign is the writing on the wall for the other candidates. Short of President Biden falling and not being able to get up – which is possible...he’s won the nomination. Whereas Nikki Haley exists in the Republican race as a conviction alternative. Dean Phillips and to a lesser extent Marianne Williamson exist in the Democrat’s race as the Life Alert candidates.