The Presidential Primary Races – January 24th, 2024
Bottom Line: The nation’s first primary is over and effectively the nomination processes in both parties increasingly appear to be as well. Donald Trump followed up his dominating win in Iowa last week with another commanding win in New Hampshire. The win came after the exit of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis from the race leaving only Nikki Haley as a credible challenger to the former and perhaps future president. Throughout the nomination processes’ pre-season Haley had consistently polled best in New Hampshire leaving her without a clear path to victory in any upcoming state – let alone the nomination by way of pledged delegates. Meanwhile Democrats had their first contest of the season with the non-DNC sanctioned primary in New Hampshire which resulted in a write-in candidacy for President Biden. His two challengers for the Democrat nomination, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, were on the ballot making New Hampshire likely the best opportunity for both candidates to perform in this process. That neither came close to Biden’s write-in total speaks volumes regarding their credibility in this race in the minds of Democrat primary voters.
Here's where the Republican candidates stand with pledged delegates after New Hampshire (1,215 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Trump: 32
- Haley: 17
- DeSantis: 9
- Ramaswamy: 3
As for the Democrats – no delegates were awarded in the New Hampshire Primary due to the DNC’s decision not to recognize the state’s primary results.
As for what’s next? Democrats hold the next two elections in the nomination process. South Carolina’s Democrats vote on February 3rd, with Nevada’s Democrats voting on February 6th. The next Republican contest is the Nevada caucus February 8th. It appears as though the only potential drama in this year’s nomination process will be whatever is decided in the legal system as it pertains to Donald Trump and health/Hunter Biden’s legal matters as it applies to Joe Biden. Given those outstanding factors it may be the case that Nikki Haley remains in the Republican race and one or both of Phillips and Williamson remain in the Democrat’s race.