It’s All About Delegates - The Presidential Primary Races – February 28th, 2024
Bottom Line: After a significant lull in the primary season, nearly two weeks between Republican contests and three weeks between Democrat primaries, the action has picked up. Saturday’s 20-point win by former President Donald Trump in South Carolina not only kept his undefeated streak intact this season, but it also had symbolic significance as well as it was a decisive win in Nikki Haley’s home state. Despite not having a clear path to victory, Haley pledged to fight on. Last night’s contest, the first of two for Republicans in Michigan (Republicans will also hold a caucus on Saturday), resulted in her worst election loss yet during this nominating season.
For Democrats, yesterday's primary election in Michigan was the first contest since numerous negative news items have hit President Biden’s administration and presidential campaign – most notably the special prosecutor’s report depicting a president who would have been pursued for alleged crimes if the special prosecutor thought he was mentally fit to stand trial. The big question heading into the Michigan vote wasn’t whether he’d win the state, but whether Michigan’s Democrats would issue a large “no confidence” vote by voting “non-committed”. There was a large non-noncommitted vote in Michigan – however Biden still pulled in over 80% of the vote.
Here's where the Republican candidates stand with pledged delegates (1,215 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Trump: 119 (78% of available delegates)
- Haley: 22 (14% of available delegates)
As for the Democrats (1,968 delegates needed to clinch nomination):
- Joe Biden: 193 (100% of available delegates)
- Dean Phillips: 0
As for what’s next? Republicans hold the next 5 elections in the nomination process. This Saturday we have the Idaho, Missouri and Michigan caucuses. Sunday is the Washington D.C. primary and Monday is the North Dakota caucus. That’s in advance of the biggest election day of the primary season – Super Tuesday with numerous contests for both parties. The next week is the biggest of the cycle and will likely prove to be decisive in both nomination races.