Q&A – A Closer Look at Florida’s Measles “Outbreak”
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Today’s Entry: Brian, please address the measles outbreak we keep hearing about in the news. I know that this is being politicized so I don’t trust most of the reporting on it.
Bottom Line: As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts and to your point there’s been no shortage of seemingly dire news reporting about Florida’s measles outbreak. Commonly, reporting on the topic has included specific blame that’s been assigned for the outbreak directed at Florida’s Surgeon General Dr. Jospeh Ladapo and secondarily parents. For example, NPR’s related story is entitled: Florida’s measles response flouts science of disease prevention in the story it is stated: In mid-February, a measles outbreak started at the Manatee Bay Elementary School in Broward County in South Florida. There are now at least nine cases in the county and one additional one in Polk County in Central Florida. Several public health researchers say Florida's current response to the outbreak goes against well-established public health guidance. Florida's surgeon general, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, has so far not urged parents of unvaccinated children at the school with the outbreak to get their children vaccinated, or to quarantine them. The story then goes on to cite select health experts who condemn Dr. Ladapo’s response saying that it “flouts” science. That’s typical in the reporting that’s out there. So, what about it? Let’s look at where we stand with so-called measles “outbreaks” and Dr. Ladapo’s position.
First, let’s start with the definition of what an outbreak is. Before providing the definition, what do you perceive an outbreak to be? I think that’s important in the overall characterization of the coverage of this topic because perception and the way the term is being applied in this storyline are likely in two different places. According to the World Health Organization the definition of an outbreak is this:
- A disease outbreak is the occurrence of cases of disease in excess of what would normally be expected in a defined community, geographical area or season.
Now, how many known cases of measles are there in Florida? As of Thursday, the answer is ten. Ten isn’t zero, but my perception is that it’s also a far smaller number than what comes to mind when the term “outbreak” is thrown around. Under the literal definition of outbreak – the reporting is technically accurate. If zero cases is the norm, and suddenly you have ten, that does meet the literal definition of an...occurrence of cases of disease in excess of what would normally be expected in a defined community. My pointing this out isn’t designed to downplay the potential of the ten cases turning into many more through the spreading of the contagion, however it is to throw a dose of pragmatism into the conversation that may otherwise be lacking. On that note consider this...
Number of measles cases (as of 2/29) in
- Florida: 10
- United States: 35
- England: 347
Anyone else find that interesting? The UK is a country with only fifth of the population of the United States, and a country with a population that’s not even three times the total of Florida’s population. If Florida had the same number of population adjusted cases as England, we’d currently have 121 cases – or greater than twelve times the number measles cases that Florida currently has. And by the way, England has had a total of 1,603 known measles cases over the past year. I’m certain you’re not having this comparison provided elsewhere. I’m also certain that Dr. Ladapo’s recently provided guidance didn’t have anything to do with it. So, about that...
Last week, after six measles cases were reported at Manatee Bay Elementary in Weston, Dr. Ladapo sent a memo to parents and guardians that said this:
There is a cluster of measles cases that has been identified at Manatee Bay Elementary. The Florida Department of Health (DOH) is continuously working with all partners, including Broward County Public Schools and local hospitals, to identify close contacts. Measles can be transmitted four days prior to the start of symptoms. When measles is detected in a school, it is normally recommended that individuals without history of prior infection or vaccination stay home for up to 21 days. This is the period of time that the virus can be transmitted.
Individuals with a history of prior infection or vaccination who have received the full series of the Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) immunization are 98% protected and are unlikely to contract measles. Up to 90% of individuals without immunity will contract measles if exposed. Because of the high likelihood of infection, it is normally recommended that children stay home until the end of the infectious period, which is currently March 7, 2024. As the epidemiological investigation continues, this date could change.
However, due to the high immunity rate in the community, as well as the burden on families and educational cost of healthy children missing school, DOH is deferring to parents or guardians to make decisions about school attendance. This recommendation may change as epidemiological investigations continue.
That is what everyone who’s chosen to be up in arms about this are up in arms about. There’s is nothing factually inaccurate included within that information. But it’s the parental choice based upon that information that runs counter to what the CDC wants to see. Much like during the pandemic when the CDC ordered lockdown policies and whole industries out of business, their directive is to keep kids out of school in this situation.
To date there is not a single case of measles attributed to behaviors associated with Dr. Ladapo’s guidance...including in England – where there are exponentially more cases and the standard CDC type of guidance is provided. So yes, there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. These are the facts. And the irony is – the number one reason attributed to increased measles cases in recent years is due to a lack of measles vaccinations for children on a normal schedule due to lockdown policies that prevented them from getting them on a normal schedule. Vaccine hesitancy among parents due to the lies from the medical establishment about the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines is a distant second.