It’s (The First of Three) Election Days in Florida - Top 3 Takeaways – March 19th, 2024
- It’s Election Day in Florida...though not everyone in Florida has an election to vote for. Today’s Presidential Preference Primary and Municipal Election Day marks the first of three Election Days in Florida in this critical Presidential election year and the number I’m watching is 30...as in 30% voter turnout. Why 30? That’s the percentage of Florida’s voters who turned out in the Presidential Primary Election cycle in 2020. While 30% sounds low, and is low, the average turnout rate for the Presidential Preference Primary Election Day has historically been 38%. Having said that, a turnout rate near that today would likely indicate a sign of what’s to come in November and would likely be great news for right-leaning candidates down ballot in communities with local elections today. Why? Republicans are Florida’s largest contingent of registered voters, however they still only comprise 38.5% of the state’s electorate, and they’re the only ones who are certain to have an election to vote in today. As I first noted last fall, when the decision was made, and highlighted again last week when I noticed vote-by-mail and early voting trends, the decision by Florida’s Democratic Party to not allow any challengers to Joe Biden on the ballot may come back to bite them today in local elections. First and foremost, any non-Republican registered voters who don’t have a local election to vote for, won’t be voting at all today. But while even the Republican race for president is over, with Donald Trump having clinched the necessary pledged delegates last week to become the presumptive nominee (as did President Biden), his name is still on the ballot and that appears to be a significant factor driving voter turnout entering Election Day. In Indian River County, the decided Republican Presidential Primary is the only election on the ballot and turnout among eligible voters is over 16% entering today. In Martin County, Sewall’s Point’s Special Election is the only municipal election on the ballot in addition to the Republican Presidential Primary and voter turnout among the eligible stands at 13% entering Election Day. Meanwhile,
- Palm Beach County has the potential for the biggest storylines of all, anywhere within the state today. 23 of Palm Beach County’s 39 incorporated municipalities are holding elections today with over 58% of all PBC voters having an opportunity to vote. Entering today just over 13% already have, but notably, it’s who's choosing to vote given the opportunity. 38% of Palm Beach County’s voters are registered Democrats while 31% are Republicans and 31% are registered NPAs and minor party affiliated voters. But entering today, 57% of those who’ve already voted are Republicans compared to only 31% who’re Democrats with just 12% of NPA and minor party voters having opted to vote entering Election Day. The turnout trend is even more dramatic than when I first flagged it last Wednesday. As I mentioned at the time... While Florida’s Presidential Preference Primaries won’t impact the outcome of the Democrat and Republican Party nominations for president, with both having already been decided, the name at the top of the ticket for registered Republicans appears to have the potential to have a profound effect on local elections. Entering Election Day Palm Beach County’s Democrats are underperforming their voter registration levels by 7% while Republicans are outperforming by 26%. Municipal elections are nonpartisan elections but with that said, where there are races and there are candidates that are primarily favored by Republican voters...
- There’s reason to believe they’re positioned well to outperform today... And they have Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ballot to potentially thank for it (and perhaps Nikki Fried too for choosing not to provide Florida’s Democrats with a presidential choice). Historically Republicans have led in Election Day turnout in Florida and elsewhere. Should that be the case again today, along with an already significant turnout advantage, there’s the potential for a wave election at the municipal level the likes of which we saw in the 2022 midterms - the election that at the local level flipped the Palm Beach County Commission. While municipal elections are non-partisan elections, the Palm Beach County Republican Party has issued endorsements of 37 candidates in 18 municipalities. In 2022, for the first time in the county’s history, Palm Beach County’s voters broke for the entire Republican cabinet. They also flipped the Palm Beach County Commission. Today’s the day that many local governments could more closely begin to reflect that trend along with a potential preview of what’s to come in November. I’ve often said, and it’s generally true, that the elections which most often have the biggest impact on your everyday life are those which happen closest to you in geography. For most of Palm Beach County’s voters, today’s that day. Make it count. Polls are open from 7 to 7.