Q&A ā Trump Polls & Illegal VotesĀ
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Todayās Entry: Todayās topic was submitted via talkback. A listener suggested that polls arenāt accounting for the potential for illegal immigrants voting this year. Ā
Bottom Line: There are two compelling and provocative concepts in play with todayās Q&A. The first is the omnipresent concern about record illegal immigration into the United States during the Biden Administration leading to potentially rampant voter fraud by illegal immigrants this November. The other is the context with which Trump is showing in the polls. I want to address them both individually because I think itās important to do so. I want to start with a premise and aĀ question because I think it will set the tone for what comes next with a conversation about the fear of voter fraud in November. How many criminal convictions for voter fraud in Florida have there been over the prior four years? How many have involved illegal immigrants voting? Ā
The answers to those two questions I believe are foundationally important to help establish a premise for concerns over voter fraud. The answer is 24 criminal convictions with two other cases that currently point towards convictions. Of those 26 individuals how many were illegal immigrants? 2. Now, does this mean that over the past two general election cycles, and two local election cycles, that only 26 people have committed voter fraud in Florida? Probably not. It's possible others didnāt get caught. Is it possible that more than two illegal immigrants have voted within the past four years? Iād say itās not only possible but likely ā again for the same reason. But how does that wash generally with your perspective? And I think this is important for one foundational reason. Florida is the countryās best-case study for this type of thing. Ā
Floridaās the third most populous state with the third largest estimated illegal immigration population in the country. Also, at least until after the 2022 election cycle, the largest swing state in the country. This means in terms of sheer numbers and thus potential opportunity, along with the perceived motivation to do so, Florida checks a lot of boxes. But thatās not all, in recent years Florida has also created a state agency dedicated to uncovering and discovering election crimes and is led by a state administration that is motivated to identify and to prosecute them. What this means is that while it is likely some amount of fraud may have slipped under the radar, anything pervasive likely wouldnāt. This is not to downplay the fraud that has occurred, thatās in part due to the 26 individuals not resulting in only 26 fraudulent votes being cast. While some voter fraud is one person casting one illegal vote, often schemes involving many votes per perpetrator are the result. And in fact, in 2020 a local election in central Florida was overturned due to voter fraud having been discovered. And that leads to my next point. Ā
A nationwide study of the 2016 election was done to attempt to determine if illegal immigrants had voted in the presidential election. Nationally, taking a sample of 23.5 million votes reviewed (from all states)Ā it was discovered that 30 votes were potentially cast by noncitizens. Thatās a total that projects to be 127 for the entire election.Ā
In my experience Iāve found that itās most often the case that those on the left underestimate voter fraud by often saying itās either non or near non-existent, which isnāt true, while often many on the right suggest itās far more prevalent than is ever evidenced to be. Those who know my history on this issue know that Iāve been personally involved in identifying and helping to stop voter fraud in Broward and Palm Beach Counties historically. I take this extremely seriously. And this takes me to the next point about something referenced. That if illegal immigrants vote but donāt realize theyāre not doing anything wrong the vote counts and thereās no consequence (or at least thatās what I inferred from the comment). Iām not sure where that comes from but that doesnāt exist. It is unlawful for non-US citizens to vote in any federal election. Ā
The Illegal Immigration reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act explicitly bans this. One must be a legal U.S. Citizen of at least 18 years of age in order to vote in any federal election. The penalty for violations includes a fine, revocation of any status within the US one may have, federal prison time and deportation. Additionally, every state in the country has state penalties as well. The stakes associated with the risk of getting caught is much higher for non-citizens committing voter fraud than it is even for citizens committing voter fraud. This is likely why have been very few cases of voter fraud involving noncitizens up to now.Ā Ā
Where I think there may be some confusion from is a federal court ruling in March which ruled that non-citizens may participate with voter registration groups to register legal voters ā but they themselves may not register to vote. Incidentally, that ruling was by Obama appointed Judge Mark Walker whoās made a habit out of overturning Florida laws that are challenged before him only to have his decisions overturned on appeal. That particular ruling may be the next. Now, given everything Iāve said does this mean that there wonāt be efforts to have illegal immigrants vote this November? Nope. Iām sure there will be. We should always be diligent and take nothing for granted ā especially in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where the state governments may not be as inclined to pursue potential voter fraud cases as Florida is. This is where the Republican Party at the grass roots level must be diligent. This is also where concerned citizens need to get involved in becoming poll workers and observers.Ā
The threat is a real one to be taken seriously. With that said, the threat is probably similar to what weāve seen generally. Greater than the left that says and probably less severe than the worst fears on the right. Itās still unlikely that many whoāve managed to successfully make their way into this country illegally will want to put that at risk by making themselves both visible and vulnerable by attempting to vote in November. As for the polls...Ā
They should all be taken for what they are, which is a potential temperature check at a moment in time as opposed to a precise indication of what is. With that said whatās most compelling to me about the polls currently is what weāve known about them historically. Donald Trump is showing small but consistent leads nationally and within most swing states. Whatās a bit more compelling about that to me is that weāve known theyāveĀ severely under sampled Trump previously. In 2016, Clinton was shown with a 3.2% advantage nationally and she won the popular vote by 2.1%. So, Trumpās support was undercounted by 1.1% (which was the difference in so many close states that Trump won). In 2020 it was even worse with Biden showing an advantage of 7.2% nationally while he won the popular vote by 4.5%. Trumpās support was under sampled by 2.7% which is why the election proved to be closer than most national pundits believed it would be. Trumpās performing about 5% better in the polls this year than he did in 2016 and about 8 points better than he did in 2020. Thatās interesting ā especially given the history. Most cynically, itās also a swing thatās big enough to potentially account for an increase in voter fraud if you do believe itāll successfully happen.Ā