Closing Time in Trump Trial, Expanding the Political Map & Record Highs - Top 3 Takeaways – May 20th, 2024
- Decision time. This week figures to be one of the most important weeks of the year for the former and perhaps future president of the United States. That’s mostly due to one big reason. It holds the potential, and strong likelihood, of a verdict being rendered in what is likely to be the only criminal case pending against him to be decided before the presidential election. Today is expected to be the final day of testimony for Michael Cohen who, along with the prosecution, probably had three of the longest days of their lives following his testimony which was devastating to his own credibility and the prosecution’s case last Thursday. Currently Cohen’s expected to take the stand today, and closing arguments are scheduled to be delivered tomorrow. Which would allow for the time needed for a jury rendered verdict before Memorial Day weekend. One potential variable to watch is if the Defense feels it’s needed to call Bob Costello, former Manhattan prosecutor and Michael Cohen attorney to the stand. As a reminder it was Costello, who just last Wednesday, testified under oath to Congress that he offered Cohen a deal that would have made all of Cohen’s legal problems go away if he only flipped on Trump but that Cohen said: I swear to God, Bob, I don’t have anything on Donald Trump. Costello’s accounts of what happened with the NDAs in question in this case stand in direct contrast with Cohen’s and Costello is openly lobbying to be called to the stand. As he told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade on Friday: This case is dead. It was dead on arrival. It never should have been brought. It should have been dismissed by this judge. He still has an opportunity to do that, but I doubt very much he will do that. So I don't think there's any downside with me [testifying]. I think there's only an upside, but it's a judgment call, you know? And I haven't been sitting in court, and I'd never seen any of these 12 jurors. So I have no feeling for what those people are like or which way they're leaning, or whether they made facial gestures during the weeks of trial that indicate which way to lean. So I'm not the right person to ask. The right person is the Trump team. They'll make whatever the correct decision is. If Costello is called to the stand, it’s because the defense thinks they’ve yet to win the case. If they don’t it’s because they do. Either way it’ll be decision time in the case this week. Stand by for news...meanwhile...
- Expanding the map. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Jersey and Minnesota. Yes, I know that there’s redundancy in that not-so-random rundown of states. But do you know what that depiction of states represents? Since mid-March that is the order of where Trump has held campaign events. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Jersey and Minnesota. Do you know what all of them have in common? They’re all states won by Joe Biden four years ago. What’s more is that two of them – New Jersey and Minnesota, haven’t voted for a Republican for president in the average voter’s lifetime. The last time that New Jersey broke for a Republican for president was George H.W. Bush in 1988. And as for Minnesota, it’s a great presidential trivia question because there’s been no more reliable blue state than it. Not California, not New York or Massachusetts...It’s Minnesota that has been the most reliably blue state in the country over the previous fifty years. The last time that the state broke for a Republican for president was Richard Nixon in 1972. Now those states are where Trump has been. Now where is he going next? The Bronx on Thursday following closing arguments in his trial in what has the potential to be one of the most spirited rallies ever. Trump’s recent and current campaign strategy tells you what states he currently thinks he needs to win in order to carry the presidential election, but interestingly it also indicates that he believes he can expand the map – beyond states he or any Republican candidate have won in decades. Already Nevada, a state he didn’t win in either presidential election appears to somewhat solidly on his side. If he could move even just one more than he’s not one before that’d almost certainly do the trick with margin to spare.
- What lies ahead. There are two types of records Florida has realized over the past week. One that’s good...record tourism and one that’s not...high temperatures. Remarkably at one stretch last week West Palm Beach recorded record highs for six consecutive days and there’s not been a single day with normal to below normal temps for even a full day this month. Not only does the record heat present a foreboding of sorts as we’re still a month away from the onset of the summer solstice (June 20th) but it’s a foreboding of sorts heading into hurricane season. Last week we had the Governor’s Hurricane Conference from the Palm Beach County Convention Center. What we have in front of us is hurricane season itself. But there is one bit of good news considering... According to the National Hurricane Center “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days”. Eight of the past nine hurricane seasons have resulted in at least one “pre-season” storm. With under two weeks to go before the official start of season and nothing expected for “the next seven days” - the preseason heat hasn’t translated into preseason activity as of yet and a massive plumb of Saharan dust may be a key reason why. The massive cloud of dust which spans the entire Atlantic is currently as close as Hispaniola and by Wednesday will be covering much of the Gulf to Florida’s west and working its way a bit further north along Florida’s Atlantic coastline. The cloud isn’t good news for those with dust allergies and asthma, but its presence likely means that we will make it out of May without tropical activity – a good tradeoff for most.