The Anatomy of a Swing State – The Biden vs. Trump Rematch – June 5th
Bottom Line: With both major party nominations for President wrapped up and an apparent 2020 presidential rematch ahead of us it’s time for this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update. In this series I analyze traditional swing states which will likely prove pivotal in determining the presidential outcome in November. This cycle we’ll have a rematch for the first time since 1956 and the seventh time overall. History has generally proved favorable for the challenger in presidential rematches. The loser in the first election matchup has won the rematch on four occasions with incumbent president winning out just twice. Due to the rematch, let’s first start with an overview of where the candidates stand today compared to Election Day 2020 using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- June 4th, 2024: Trump +0.7% (1.9% in a 5-way matchup)
This week’s entry may prove to be the most instructive of the series this year. What we’ve seen play out over the past week as the former and perhaps future President of the United States has been convicted in the New York state case speaks volumes about the state of this race and the status of the American electorate. What we’ve seen play out is...not much. Donald Trump continues to show a slight lead head-to-head against Joe Biden and his lead has only declined by 0.4% over a week ago. What’s more is that Trump’s lead over President Biden has actually grown slightly to 1.9% in a 5-way matchup. What we’ve seen playout is that the lawfare campaign against Donald Trump has led to a small number of voters to reconsider their support for Joe Biden and reconsider support for a third-party candidate. This initial read shows there is the very real potential for the criminal persecution of Donald Trump to backfire for Joe Biden and potentially Democrats down ballot.
What we currently see is an 7.9% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held on Election Day. These are the states that Joe Biden won by 8-points or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way from President Biden to win the election.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Biden retaining: Minnesota, New Hampshire
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
More important than what’s happening nationally is what’s happening within specific states. We’ve yet to have post-conviction samples in swing states to see if/how the news impacts in the states that are likely to decide this year’s election. Trump is currently shown with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College – the same as last week. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.