Swamping The Vote Is the Key to Trump & Republicans Winning - Top 3 Takeaways – June 6th, 2024
- Swamp The Vote. Eight years ago, the future President of the United States ran a campaign focused on “draining the swamp”. Two days ago, the former and perhaps future President of the United States launched a campaign to “Swamp The Vote”. No this doesn’t specifically have anything to do with swamp creatures voting, it does have everything to do with early voting. In what is without a doubt the most important policy reversal Donald Trump has made since first entering politics, the former president has launched a campaign to encourage his supporters to “swamp the vote”. This campaign features Trump giving a full-throated endorsement of early voting and the use of vote-by-mail ballots. Quoting Trump: Republicans must win and we must use every appropriate tool available to beat the Democrats. Whether you vote early, absentee, by mail or in person, we must swamp the radical Democrats with massive turnout. If we swamp them, they can’t cheat, it just doesn’t work out. It’s hard to understate the significance of this because it’s a complete reversal of his stance from all previous election cycles when he often would say that the only way to ensure that your vote is counted is by voting on Election Day. Following the midterm elections which were disappointing for Republicans outside of Florida I said that it was...
- Fair to blame Trump. The reason, as I cited was this... Democrats continued to play the game the way the game the way is played across the country, taking advantage of vote-by-mail and early voting while Republicans continued to largely ignore it. Republican voters outside of Florida repeatedly listened to Trump’s insistence on Election Day voting and it repeatedly backfired. As part of my post-election analysis, I also illustrated what went right in Florida that didn’t translate elsewhere. In my Top 3 Takeaways from October 27th, 2022 – just prior to Election Day, I made two points that proved to be key to what happened in Florida contrasted with what didn’t across the country. This was the first point. Here’s what we know. Republicans had a historically good 2020 election cycle with a record number of Republicans elected top to bottom within the state of Florida. This cycle is pacing much better, with Republicans performing 9 points better with votes by mail and 7 points better with early voting. Early turnout suggests the early optimism by Florida’s Republicans is warranted. If these turnout trends continue through Election Day, a historical red wave will play out in Florida. And this one: Here’s the next political trend which needs to change in Florida (and across the country for that matter). Most Republicans waiting until Election Day to vote in person. Your vote will count every bit as much as on Election Day. Anything you’ve ever heard to the contrary is a bunch of poo and not only can I prove it, I have proven it countless times over the years. In an analysis for Newsmax, Dick Morris pointed out that voting early accomplishes two things. It ensures you don’t have an oh crap moment on Election Day that keeps you from being able to vote. But it also accomplishes something else that’s probably even further off your radar. It frees up party operatives from feeling as though they need to expend time and resources on you, to attempt make sure you get out to vote. In voting early you’re also allowing your party to focus on getting out the vote with those who might not be as reliable as you. As Morris pointed out, the potential impact of those two factors – those who intend to vote on Election Day but don’t because stuff happened, and parties being able to activate less reliable voters is worth up to 5% of the vote. How many super important elections have been decided by 5% or less? So, by getting out to vote as soon as you’re able, you’re potentially helping advance your political preferences by even more than just the impact of your vote. Two years ago, I was able to accurately project the historical red wave in Florida based on early voting trends. Conversely, it was the failure of Republicans in other states to engage similarly that is almost certainly is what led to Republicans producing a disappointing overall midterm election result. As I noted following 2022’s midterm elections it’s imperative to...
- Play the game the way the game is played. Republicans dominated early voting in Florida, out voting Democrats, who’d long held the advantage in our state, by 2-1. There are many reasons why a historic Republican win occurred in Florida, including lower turnout by Democrats, but beyond the issues, behind DeSantis’ personal popularity it was the ground game. Republicans turned out to vote early in Florida like they did in no other state and that was the difference between winning and winning a historic victory here. Similar efforts by Republicans in other states would potentially, likely, have made the difference between outright loses and wins. Republicans need to stop complaining about the way elections are conducted across the country, and they need to start playing the voting game the way it’s set to be played. Democrats continue to excel at playing the game well nationally, while Republicans continue to complain about mail in ballots being everywhere and extended early voting happening everywhere. Look at what happened in Florida when we stopped complaining and started voting early instead. That model needs to happen everywhere, and the grassroots, infrastructure and preparation need to start now. There’s no substitute for good policy and good candidates with good policy positions...but none of it matters if Republicans across the country continue to pretend that elections only happen on Election Day. It’s time to play the game everywhere the way that it’s played. Trump’s willingness to finally embrace playing the game the way that its played is the most important political issue he’s flipped on since becoming President of the United States. And if he’s to become president once again, this marked change in philosophy will be a reason why.