The Anatomy of a Swing State – The Biden vs. Trump Rematch – June 19th
Bottom Line: With both major party nominations for President wrapped up and an apparent 2020 presidential rematch ahead of us it’s time for this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update. In this series I analyze traditional swing states which will likely prove pivotal in determining the presidential outcome in November. This cycle we’ll have a rematch for the first time since 1956 and the seventh time overall. History has generally proved favorable for the challenger in presidential rematches. The loser in the first election matchup has won the rematch on four occasions with incumbent president winning out just twice. Due to the rematch, let’s first start with an overview of where the candidates stand today compared to Election Day 2020 using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- June 19th, 2024: Trump +0.8% (2.9% in a 5-way matchup)
It’s been a good week for former President Donald Trump as he’s extended his advantage over President Biden in head-to-head polling in addition to matchups with third party candidates added in. Two important dynamics are now clear. Former president Trump’s conviction in the New York state case hasn’t had a significant impact on the race (though it remains to be seen what may happen based upon whatever sentence is issued on July 11th) and third-party candidates are most likely to negatively impact Biden’s performance. So, about the race...
What we currently see is an 8% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020 in the national presidential polls. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held on Election Day. These are the states that Joe Biden won by 8-points or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way from President Biden to win the election. Though, as I recently mentioned, in my recent battleground breakdown – it appears there could be many more states potentially in play this cycle as Joe Biden’s approval ranking continues to plummet to record lows in many states he won comfortably four years ago. There’s a strong likelihood the current grouping of states will expand as we head closer to Election Day.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Biden retaining: Minnesota, New Hampshire
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
More important than what’s happening nationally is what’s happening within specific states. Trump is currently shown with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College – that’s unchanged for six consecutive weeks. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.