New York Dumps First Amendment Rights & Florida Is in Play - Top 3 Takeaways – June 20th, 2024
- No substantial constitutional question is directly involved. Well, apparently in the state of New York, the First Amendment to the United States Constitution isn’t a substantial constitutional concern. In the past I’ve previously spoken to the importance of understanding what your rights are and what the laws are in foreign countries when traveling. One of the most recent examples of the importance of understanding how different life is in other places is the Turks and Caicos case of a father who had faced a mandatory 12-year prison sentence for having inadvertently left ammo in his luggage when traveling. Quoting the U.S. State Department following the man’s guilty plea: Unfortunately, despite our willingness to work with Turks and Caicos officials to get our constituents home, we were not able to find a path forward today. At this point, well-intentioned American citizens are facing a dozen years in prison all for unknowingly having one or two bullets in their luggage. The reference to constituents, plural, is due to the Oklahoma father being far from alone. There had actually been four other Americans detained in the Turks and Caicos for having done the exact same thing...not knowing the rules and traveling to places with fewer rights (which is essentially the rest of the world). Thankfully for all involved the Turks and Caicos changed that law just yesterday, eliminating the mandatory minimum 12-year sentence, amid mounting public pressure. But as it turns out you no longer must leave the country to experience third-world level governance over your rights. You need only travel to New York. For some reason that cannot be reasonably explained, New York State Judge Juan Merchan, who issued an unconstitutional gag order on the leading presidential candidate preceding his New York state criminal case, has left the gag order, on the now convicted, but still leading presidential candidate well after the conclusion of the case. The gag order was appealed by Trump’s legal team to the New York Court of Appeals where they rejected the former and perhaps future president’s plea for the ability to freely speak. Their rational for rejecting the appeal “no substantial constitutional question is directly involved”. So apparently the First Amendment rights of the leading presidential candidate aren’t considered to be of substantial constitutional consequence in New York. And if Donald Trump doesn’t have a constitutional right to expression in New York, what rights do you think you have in New York? Its arguably worse there than in Turks and Caicos. But what this also means is that the eventual appeal of Donald Trump’s conviction following sentencing on July 11th, likewise, has no chance of being overturned on appeal in New York – which means that in order for the verdict to be overturned, it would have to come from the United States Supreme Court – which almost certainly wouldn’t come until after the election. That is unless the Supreme Court bypasses the usual appeals process in this case, which would be justified, but that could also be perceived to be injecting themselves into the presidential race which they are unlikely to want to do.
- Florida is in play. DNC Chairman Jamie Harrison, in visiting our state this week, has declared that Florida is in play. He said that’s why I am here right now. Harrison also said: We're opening offices. I feel good about the direction that we're going. And I believe that in November of this year, once again, we're going to be saying Florida, Florida, Florida... Which made me think of Marsha, Marsha, Marsha (which is almost how far back you have to go to find the era when Democrats dominated state politics). But truth be told this is the first presidential election cycle in Florida’s history in which most consider this state to be a “red state”. So perhaps it is premature to count Democrats out. More importantly it would be poor form for Republicans if they did discount the potential for Democrat turnout in November. Do I think Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in Florida in November? No. Do I think lots of other races will be close? Absolutely. In the 2022 midterm elections Republicans won a record number of seats within the state from the top to bottom. There were three main reasons for the record Republican wins. 1) Enthusiasm by Republicans to support Governor DeSantis and his agenda. 2) A lack of enthusiasm by Democrats to support Florida’s favorite political chameleon, Charlie Crist. 3) Independents (and even some Democrats) breaking for DeSantis and Republicans down ballot due to the successful navigation of the pandemic. DeSantis won reelection by 19-points. Rubio won reelection by 16-points. Now here’s the question.
- Do you think Donald Trump will win Florida by 19-points? Do you think Rick Scott will win by 16-points? My answer for you is that there’s almost not even a chance of that happening. In fact, if you cut those margins in half – that's about where I expect the margins to be in November. Now here’s where that especially matters. Down ballot. Not everyone who votes, votes straight ballots. But in recent cycles over 90% of voters do. Trump is consistently running about five-points ahead of Rick Scott in the polls within the state. That means that even a five-point win by Trump – which would be larger than his wins in 2016 and 2020 – could mean it would be a dead heat for Florida’s U.S. Senate race which could determine which party controls the United States Senate next year. And speaking of congressional control, the same is true in House races too. Florida currently has a record number of Republicans elected in the U.S. House. They were all elected in 2022’s record Republican wins in Florida. If the margins aren’t as big at the top of the ticket for Republicans, what might that mean for specific districts in Congress. One race in particular that’s worth watching is Florida’s 22nd District – which happens to be Donald Trump’s district represented by Democrat Lois Frankel. If Republicans can win a wave election in Florida again – she's vulnerable this time around. Perhaps Jared Moskowitz too. Conversely, if Florida’s Republicans can’t at least win as many seats as they won two years ago, it’s unlikely Republicans will control the House of Representatives next year. The head of the DNC is right. Florida is in play – even if it’s not at the top of the ticket. And what happens here still has the potential to shape the country.