Q&A of the Day – A History of Democrat’s Brokered Conventions
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio You mentioned that brokered conventions haven’t worked out well. Why don’t you share that info with us?
Bottom Line: Ok, I will. Ask and you shall receive... Today’s note is a follow up to yesterday’s Q&A – What Must Happen For Democrats To Replace Joe Biden. As mentioned: Many pundits on both sides of the isle seem to think that if Democrats were to find a way to nominate a different candidate that would position them with a better opportunity to win. That belies political reality within the Democrat party. There is no party unity on whom the “backup” candidate would be. The impact of a brokered convention would likely lead to a rout of the party in November. So, about that...
A brokered convention is the term used when a party’s nominee isn’t decided after the first round of voting at a party’s political convention. In the early decades of the current two-party system (1860 onward), brokered conventions were commonplace in large part due to primary elections not being conducted nationally. Instead, political party delegates would decide a party’s nominee for president which commonly took multiple votes (or every so often dozens of votes) before landing on a majority vote for a nominee at the convention. The topic of a potentially brokered convention comes up seemingly every couple of cycles for one party or another, however, to find the most recent brokered convention you must travel back 72 years to find it.
The most recent brokered convention took place in 1952 when Democrats needed three rounds of voting to nominate Adlai Stevenson. He didn’t fare so well. Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower won that election 442-89. The previous brokered convention happened four years prior when the Republicans also required three votes in 1948 to nominate Thomas Dewey. Dewey went on to only win 189 electoral college votes in an election won by Harry Truman. And that’s part of a broader theme regarding brokered conventions – especially among Democrats historically. A lack of a consensus candidate by Democrats heading into a convention has historically backfired for the party.
Since the onset of the current two-party system in 1860 Democrats have held 11 brokered conventions. The result – their party’s nominee went on to win only 3 of those elections (Grover Cleveland in 1884, Woodrow Wilson in 1912, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932). Fun fact, the record number of convention votes before nominating a presidential candidate was the 103 rounds needed to nominate Democrat John Davis in 1924. He went on to lose to Calvin Coolidge 382-136. Fun fact #2...the most convention rounds needed to nominate a candidate who went on to become president were the 46 rounds needed to nominate Woodrow Wilson in 1912. So back to our current cycle. The historical failures Democrats have had with brokered conventions is not lost on the political elite which is why you immediately saw the top party figures not named Joe Biden rally around him. On that note...
Immediately following the debate progressive think tank Data for Progress commissioned a poll aimed at gaining the post-debate sentiment of likely Democrat voters. 51% of Democrats responding in the poll preferred Joe Biden as the presidential candidate. On the one hand having barely more than half of your party’s likely voters backing your party’s presidential candidate, who also is the current President of the United States is concerning for the party. On the other hand, any effort to oust him in lieu of another candidate runs the risk of alienating the majority of the party’s voters. What’s more is that among the 49% who did want Biden to step down, their top choice for president was VP Kamala Harris – someone who polls about 3-points worse nationally than President Biden. What’s more is that the pollster then polled top names that have been floated to potentially replace Biden at the DNC. What their poll found is that none of the candidates performed better head-to-head against Trump than Joe Biden. That polled list of replacements included... Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
It could be argued that perhaps one of the replacements might perform better if they were to become better known and understood nationally (though the opposite could also be true), however the Democrat’s convention takes place only a little more than two months before the election and very close to when some states will begin to open up voting for the presidential election. There simply wouldn’t be the time and opportunity for most voters to become familiar with a candidate the way they’re accustomed to doing over what’s typically a 17-month nomination process in such a short window of time.
None of this is to say that there isn’t the potential for Democrats to hold a brokered convention in August. The current dynamics certainly represent the best opportunity for this to occur that we’ve seen in many decades. But what I’ve outlined are the many reasons why it remains unlikely despite the many desperate Democrats rooting for a change at the top of the ticket this November.