Q&A – The (Lack of) Impact Vice Presidential Picks Have on Election Outcomes
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Today’s Entry: I know you do your research before making statements like VP picks not having an election impact (and in answer to your question I’ve never voted for the bottom of the ticket either). What I would like for you to do is to illustrate this so that I can better understand and share with others.
Bottom Line: Today’s note is in response to my commentary yesterday when I said on the back of Donald Trump’s announcement that JD Vance would be his running mate... In reality, there’s no evidence that a running mate in either party has had any material impact on the outcome of an election in at least several generations. For those who question that statement btw, answer this question. In which presidential election have you voted for president due to the running mate? And yes, my commentary is evidenced based not just anecdotal...though I will share an interesting anecdote with you that helps illustrate the broader point. But before digging into the research here’s what I said when most recently addressing the topic. On August 13th of 2020 in my story Kamala Harris & the (lack of) impact of Vice-Presidential candidates: I’ll start this story by saying that if ever there was a time a Vice Presidential pick mattered most – it's potentially this one. Any objective observer of Joe Biden has questions regarding his ability to preside over our country effectively for the next four years. Boy did that ever prove true. So, to the extent that train of thought was potentially relevant four years ago one might imagine it’s amplified this time around. With that said let’s go to the scorecard.
Logically, the location where the vice presidential pick would have the greatest impact would be within their home state. Let’s start with an analysis of the impact of VP picks from the perspective of the ticket’s performance in their home state.
2020:
- Mike Pence (R), Indiana: Won by Trump in 2020 & 2016 but also Romney in 2012 – No change
- Kamala Harris (D), California: Won by Clinton in 2016 but also by Obama in 2012 – No change
2016:
- Tim Kaine (D), Virginia: Won by Clinton in 2016 but also by Obama in 2012 – No change
2012:
- Joe Biden (D), Delaware: Won by Obama in 2012 & 2008 but also won by John Kerry in 2004 – No change
- Paul Ryan (R), Wisconsin: Won by Obama in 2012 – Failed to win home state
2008:
- Sarah Palin (R) Alaska: Won by McCain in 2008 but also Bush in 2004 – No change
2004:
- Dick Cheney (R) Wyoming: Won by Bush in 2004 & 2000 but also by Bob Dole in 1996 – No change
- John Edwards (D) North Carolina: Failed to win home state
2000:
- Forget the Vice Presidential candidate – Al Gore, the Presidential candidate, failed to carry his home state of Tennessee. Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996.
History tells a very consistent story. There’s no evidence of a catalyst shift in the direction of the polls or the outcomes in even a running mate’s home state. In fact, ironically, in the case of Paul Ryan’s failure to deliver his home state in 2012 and John Edwards in 2004 – it's even more significant because Obama was able to carry North Carolina in 2008 and Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016. Most notable of all, if Al Gore had been able to carry his home state of Tennessee in 2000, which Bill Clinton won only four years earlier, he would have been the president.
No running mate has had any evidenced impact where it matters most – the Electoral College – in recent political history. To find the last Presidential election cycle where there’s evidence that a VP pick impacted the outcome in a state, you’d have to travel back to the 1960 Presidential election when JFK’s running mate, Lyndon Johnson, won his home state of Texas. A state won in the previous election by Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower. The most compelling case to be made regarding the muted impact of VP selections, however, may be this anecdote.
There is arguably no greater advantage for a presidential candidate than to have had the name recognition and the platform that comes with having been Vice President. Here’s a trivia question for you. Since 1804 how many VP’s have gone on to win the presidency directly from having been Vice President? The answer is two. Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George H.W. Bush in 1988. That’s it. Most sitting VP’s who’ve run for president from that post have lost their election bids. Given that sitting vice presidents have a losing record when running for president it’s especially challenging to make the case that they’re capable of swinging a presidential race at the top of the ticket from the bottom of it.