Q&A of the Day – The Current State of Congressional Races
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: Brian, I also enjoy hearing your analysis. I’d like to know your thoughts about how congressional races are currently shaping up and which party is best positioned to win the house and senate. Understandably the presidential election has been in focus, but I haven’t heard any analysis of the congressional races in quite some time. Also, conventional wisdom seems to be that the main reason Democrats pushed so hard to get Biden out was to save races down ballot. Do you think Harris at the top of the ticket will accomplish that?
Bottom Line: As you noted, as badly as Democrats want to win at the top of the ticket, many have been nearly as concerned about what would happen to races further down the ticket in November if Joe Biden remained the Democrat’s presidential candidate. Take for example this ABC News report following the Biden-Trump debate: President Joe Biden's debate performance has ignited fears among Democrats that a Biden-led ticket could threaten down-ballot candidates as Democrats seek to hold control of the Senate and win back a majority in the House of Representatives. Democratic politicians and party operatives have expressed concerns that Biden could depress Democratic turnout in November, dragging down candidates lower on the ticket -- and noted that some donors have begun to shift their focus down-ballot to hedge against the prospect of a victory for former President Donald Trump. Those concerns seemed to be further emphasized with the news that the Democrat leaders who personally made the appeal to President Biden to exit the race weren’t former presidents Clinton and Obama but rather former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer. In answer to your question, at this point I’d say the answer is probably yes.
While Democrat voter turnout in November will ultimately tell the story about whether a shift from Biden to Harris will have proven to be effective for the preservation of many key congressional races, there’s already a key indication about what the answer to that question may be. Much has been made about the campaign cash floodgates being opened for Harris since Biden’s announcement to leave the race on Sunday, and with good reason. Harris’ campaign raised a record $81 million within the first 24 hours of launching – a total that’s over $100 million now in total. What’s more is that over 888,000 small dollar donors from across the country contributed to that total. If that’s any indication about the improvement in the level of enthusiasm within rank-and-file Democrats, the move likely has worked to energize the base. But the story is far from being just about the money at the top-of-the-ticket.
There’s been an 800% increase in donations to Democrat congressional candidates since Biden’s announcement on Sunday as well. Congressional donations to Democrat candidates have been pacing at about 40% of the total dollar amount Harris had been raking in through the first two days. That not only is an indication of greater enthusiasm for down ballot races as well but the money itself can be used by candidates to activate potential voters in addition to attempting to win over persuadable voters. The bottom line is that there’s about $140 million more available for Democrats to spend to turnout the vote today then there was entering Sunday and that’s likely worth some votes here and there independent of whether there proves to be a durable increase in Democrat voter enthusiasm that carries through to November’s elections. Now about the current state of congressional races...
There are five prominent, independent, political prognosticators for Congressional races: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Elections Daily, Inside Elections and Split Ticket (538 is owned by ABC News which is a subsidiary of Disney). The website 270towin.com publishes forecasts which aggregate the information from each of those services. Republicans currently control the House of Representatives with a 220-212 majority with three seats currently vacant. The consensus forecast of the five prognosticators currently shows Republicans with a 209-201 advantage with 25 races that are considered tossups. In other words, preceding Biden’s exit and Harris’ entrance into this race, the average forecast showed Republicans maintaining an eight-seat advantage in the House.
The picture in the senate has recently appeared to be a bit more favorable for Republicans. Democrats currently maintain a 51-49 advantage in the senate (once independent candidates who caucus with Democrats are factored in). The consensus forecast shows Republicans gaining ground with a 50-48 advantage – with two races that are currently tossups. Under that scenario Republicans would be positioned to gain control of the senate if either Donald Trump were to win the presidency and/or they were able to win at least one of the two additional races that are considered to currently be tossups.
In other words, prior to the dynamics shifting at the top of the ticket, the partisan split further down the ticket had appeared to slightly favor Republicans overall. While there had already been a significant amount of head-to-head presidential polling between Harris and Trump preceding her assent to presumptive nominee status, providing us with an initial temperature check at the top-of-the-ticket, it’ll take a little time to gain a greater understanding about the implications further down the ticket.