The Anatomy of a Swing State – Harris vs. Trump – July 31st
Bottom Line: As we’re set to close out July we’re doing so with a complete reset of the presidential race with a whole host of new data to parse through enabling us to gain a better understanding of how the dynamics in the presidential race have shifted since Kamala Harris ascended to the top of the Democrat’s ticket. We now have a full week of swing state polling between Harris and Trump to gain a better understanding of what the new swing state landscape is and where we stand as we’re now under 100 days from Election Day.
There will be no presidential rematch after all, we’ll start with an overview of where Trump stands today in polling against Harris compared to where he stood on Election Day 2020 against Biden using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- July 30th, 2024: Trump (vs. Harris)+2% (2% in a 5-way matchup)
So, in effect the name of the top of the Democrat’s ticket has changed but the dynamics in this race haven’t significantly changed. Trump’s lead over Harris at the onset of this contest is about 1% lower than it was against Biden when he exited the race.
What we currently see is an 9.2% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held by Election Day. What we’ve seen over the past week is Trump slightly expand his head-to-head performance against Harris, while his advantage in 5-way matchups has been halved. Harris is polling far better than Biden had been with third party candidates in the mix.
These are the states that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won by 9.2% or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way to win the election. There’s another change this week with Harris at the top of the ticket. Last week, New Mexico, which had appeared to be in play for Trump with Biden at the top of the ticket appeared to potentially be in play – moved back to a safer hold for Democrats with Harris in the race. This week there’s another state that currently appears to be a bit out of reach for Trump – Virginia.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Harris retaining: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
More important than what’s happening nationally is what’s happening within specific states. In this second edition of the series between Harris and Trump we have a change in the map as Kamala Harris is now positioned to retain New Hampshire narrowing Trump’s perceived advantage this week. Trump is currently shown with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.