Election Catalysts 3 Months Away from Election Day – Top 3 Takeaways – August 6th, 2024
- The catalysts. We’re now three months away from Election Day and the remaining catalysts left to play out for this election cycle are increasingly clear - there are four. The four catalysts that hold the potential to decide the next president of the United States come down to these. Kamala Harris’ VP pick, which will happen today, the DNC, which is under two weeks away, September 18th which is currently scheduled as Trump’s sentencing date in his New York state criminal case, and the October surprise(s). Here’s what we can reasonably expect from each of these. Kamala Harris’ VP pick will be one of Pennsylvania’s Governor Josh Shapiro or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. News media will widely celebrate the choice and will overstate the significance of the running mate because they always do. As I’ve covered over the years and most recently just over two weeks ago... No running mate has had any evidenced impact where it matters most – the Electoral College – in recent political history. To find the last Presidential election cycle where there’s evidence that a VP pick impacted the outcome in a state, you’d have to travel back to the 1960 Presidential election when JFK’s running mate, Lyndon Johnson, won his home state of Texas. This year won’t be any different. When Biden was still at the top of the ticket the conversation about Harris being his VP was highly relevant because no know believed he’d finish a second term if given the opportunity – most still question his ability to complete the first. Harris’ credibility, as in whether she can credibly perform the duties of president, is what’s called into question by many – not her viability. For that reason, voters will not be voting for the bottom of the ticket, because that’s not what voters do. That’s what media types and certain politicos say they do. Again, for those who question this analysis I’ll say again – you tell me the election you changed your vote for one presidential candidate to another based on the running mate at the bottom of the ticket. You haven’t and guess what, just about no one else has in 64 years either. The second catalyst is the DNC, and this has the potential to be a double edge sword this year. The most likely outcome is four days of glowing media coverage of the DNC and their proposed policies leading to a slight post-convention bump in the polls of about two points. That’s what usually happens. The other end of that sword is whether there’s still deep dissent in the party, especially over Israeli policy, that could lead to extensive protests in the streets and potentially even on the convention floor itself. The risk of this being the case is somewhat mitigated with Biden not being at the top of the ticket but has the potential to be front and center once again based on what Iran does or doesn’t do in attacking Israel, what the US response is in backing or not backing Israel and what Harris, who was pulled off of the campaign trail yesterday to be briefed on the likely pending attack by Iran against Israel, has to say about it. The third catalyst...
- The lawfare campaign against Trump stands to be an especially interesting one. For now, New York Judge Juan Merchan has rescheduled September 18th as Trump’s sentencing date for his conviction in the Stormy Daniels Hush Money case. What will the Democrat donor judge do? Will the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling lead to another potential delay of sentencing in the case (to push it past the election)? Will Merchan move ahead with his sentencing? If he does, what will he do? If he decides to sentence Trump to jail how would that play (and also based on Trump’s extremely strong appeal prospects in that case due to Merchan’s blatantly biased handling of that case how long would he stay)? And then there are two particular potential October surprises...
- Which in reality may already be here. The first is the potential for an all out Iranian war with Israel. If Iran does directly attack Israel in what becomes a sustained conflict how would you feel about the extension of that war? How would the average American feel? How would the average anti-Israel Democrat feel? There’s potential downside for Democrats from Harris on down to pay the price for the Biden-Harris administration's weakness on the world stage. The weakness that’s led to the collapse of Afghanistan to the Taliban, China consolidating power over Hong Kong while threatening the sovereignty of Taiwan and the Philippines, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel war and potentially the extension of it in what could be a biblical showdown of sorts with Iran. Americans, regardless of political persuasion don’t want more war – if this administration's weakness allows it, voters are likely to make them pay for it. Speaking of paying for it, the biggest October surprise that again may already be underway is an unwanted economic surprise. How do you feel about the economy today? Probably not too good. Currently only 38% of Americans approve of the economy. And that’s before the latest economic fallout which has already resulted in a stock market correction. If we are in fact on the edge of a recession, and not just a correction, watch out below if you’re Kamala Harris. Right now, some polls show Harris with a lead, some show Trump on top, but there’s one thing that literally all the national polls show. Voters trust Trump over Harris with the economy. The economy is already the biggest issue this election. If it becomes a bigger issue than it already is because the bottom begins to fallout from under it... That catalyst will quickly trump all the others (unless we’re already in World War III) and Trump would clearly be the beneficiary. Election Day is three months away and there are four major catalysts in play. Given what appears to be a tight race as of today, how they break will determine what happens on Election Day.