The Anatomy of a Swing State – Harris vs. Trump – August 28th
Bottom Line: We’re now under 10 weeks away from Election Day, the DNC is behind us, with the next likely catalyst in this race being the ABC News debate on September 10th. The past week has not only presented us with the festivities of the DNC, but also a development that significantly changes the outlook of the presidential race in many states. RFK Jr.’s exiting of the race has ended my tracking of 5-way polling with a focus that for now will center around head-to-head polling. RFK had an average of 5% support; all non-RFK third party candidates had polled with a combined 1.5% and they aren’t on ballots in every state.
We’ll start with an overview of where Trump stands today in polling against Harris compared to where he stood on Election Day 2020 against Biden using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- August 28th, 2024: Harris +1.5%
Momentum had squarely been on the side of Kamala Harris since she entered the race. However, that may no longer be the case. While post-DNC polling is limited at this point, what we’ve seen over the past week is a settling out of polling in this race. Harris’ lead nationally is the same as it was last week. Typically, conventions have provided a short-term boost of two-points. It’s possible that a week from now we’ll have seen that it turned out to be the case. It’s also possible however that Harris has reached a ceiling for support and/or her momentum was stalled by RFK Jr.’s exit from the race and endorsement of Donald Trump.
What we currently see is an 5.7% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held by Election Day.
These are the states that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won by 5.7% or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch as of this week. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way to win the election.
Since Harris’ assent to the top-of-the ticket Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia have moved from potential swing state status back into likely states for Democrats prior to this week’s changes. With each of those changes the path to victory expands for Kamala Harris as it narrows for Donald Trump.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Harris retaining: Michigan, Wisconsin
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania
The big change this week is that Trump is once again positioned to win Arizona. Trump is currently shown with a 287 to 251 vote advantage in the Electoral College. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.