September’s Hurricane History - 2024
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems are two different animals, however. At the midway point of hurricane season, we can once again take solace in South Florida having successfully navigated the first three months of hurricane season free from the impact of hurricanes. Notably, despite reports of what was expected to be one of the busiest seasons in recorded history, the first half of this year’s hurricane season has only been average. Hopefully it remains that way.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance, however, it's unlikely to develop as of now.
Entering September last year, we’d already had 11 named storms including a major hurricane, Idalia, make landfall in Florida. This year we’ll enter September with only five named storms, with Debby a category 1 hurricane, making landfall in Florida. As I’d indicated, this would likely be the case entering this year’s hurricane season; persistent Saharan dust has been the biggest story of this year’s hurricane season thus far. Ordinarily Saharan dust, which inhibits tropical development, abates during the first half of August. This year’s level of dust has the potential to be record setting as it’s still making its way across the Atlantic entering September.
As for September’s hurricane history – it’s notable for two reasons. It's the most active month of hurricane season and the historical peak day of hurricane season is September 10th. Here’s a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Since tracking of the Atlantic Hurricane season began in 1851:
- 36% of all tropical storms have formed during September
- 40% of all hurricanes have formed during the month
On average 3.6 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes have formed in September. Statistically the calendar says we’re halfway through hurricane season. In terms of historical storm development, if this season is consistent with historical norms, most of the season is ahead of us. Entering September here's what's happened prior to September:
- 33% of hurricanes
- 37% of tropical storms
In other words, about 60% of the usual activity happens from this point forward. In happier news, once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Fingers crossed as we’re set to enter the two peak weeks of hurricane season.