The Tropics Aren’t Broken, Meteorological Narratives Are Broken – Top 3 Takeaways
- The tropics aren’t broken. It’s meteorological narratives that are broken. As we’re currently firmly inside of the peak weeks of hurricane season, with only a tropical disturbance that isn't expected to amount to much in sight...increasingly the question being asked by Floridians, and for that matter by many Americans is “why has hurricane season been so quiet”? Seriously, on Google that has been the second most searched for question pertaining to hurricane season over the past two weeks. The reason so many are wondering why it’s been so quiet is due to the unprecedented pre-hurricane season weather hype. The preseason hurricane forecasts put out by AccuWeather (which infamously coined this season as one that would be “explosive” and “super-charged”), Colorado State University, the Weather Channel and NOAA all had one thing in common. A warning that this hurricane season would be one of the most active on record and potentially the worst on record (the aggregate of the preseason forecasts was the most aggressive we’d ever seen). And the rational between the forecasts was all the same. Rising air temperatures due to climate change had resulted in rising oceans temperatures which had reached record levels, which in turn would result in potentially record setting tropical activity (along with the shift from the El Nino weather pattern last year, that’s less conducive for tropical activity, into a developing La Nina pattern that’s conducive for it this year). Well, as we’re approaching the halfway point of the hurricane season with only five named storms, it obviously hasn’t happened yet. This led to one of the increasingly rare pragmatic meteorologists, Ryan Maue to post on X... "The tropics are broken." What happened to the Atlantic hurricane season? While no one is complaining about the recent quiet time, forecasters wonder what happened. One forecast even called for 33 named storms! But, as I mentioned at the onset, it’s not the tropics that are broken but it is very much...
- The meteorological narratives that are breaking. As a listener of this show you no doubt know that the reason this year’s season has been so slow is due to the dust. As in massive plumbs of Saharan dust. As I first mentioned on April 22nd... If you’re looking for potentially good news, consider this...about the upcoming hurricane season we’ve already been told could be “explosive” in terms of its activity. It could be a case of Saharan dust to the rescue... There’s been an unusually high level of Saharan dust kicked up into Europe in recent months due to the impact of last year’s El Nino cycle. While we’re losing the benefit of El Nino in terms of mitigating hurricanes this year, we may be gaining a tailwind of Saharan dust from it this year. As winds continue to shift further in this direction from Africa as we approach summer, that dust will being making its way towards us. Right now, it looks as though it could continue at unusually high levels through much of the hurricane season. Dry air and dust are a great combination for keeping tropical development at bay. If that happens this season just may not be so “explosive” after all. And it was on July 26th in that day’s Q&A that I had this to say... According to NOAA’s recent observations, the Atlantic has had about 50% less moisture in the atmosphere with the extensive, consistent, and potentially historic, Saharan dust clouds compared to the typical Atlantic atmosphere. As the Saharan dust has gone, the hurricane season has gone this year. Saharan dust has become the single biggest factor in whether tropical formation takes place and how much rain is concentrated in storms that do form. Warmer temperatures have led to more Saharan dust being sent into the atmosphere. Where there’s Saharan dust it’s unlikely that there will be significant tropical development regardless of how warm water and air temperatures may be. When and where there isn’t Saharan dust however, it’s likely there could be increased developmental activity and stronger storms more regularly. For now, there’s no end in sight to a high level of Saharan dust activity, and with continued high temperatures around the world this summer that’s likely to continue to be the case in coming weeks. For that reason, August, historically the second busiest month of hurricane season, could produce below average activity during what was predicted to potentially be the busiest season in history. And here we are.
- Now, about the meteorological narrative being broken. Here’s what I mean by that. The meteorological narrative has been that man-made climate change has resulted in ever hotter temperatures that will lead to ever busier hurricane seasons with ever stronger storms within them. What that narrative has lacked, however, is analytical perspective regarding the impact of climate change in the Saharan desert and the effects of it in the Saharan Air Layer. Up to this point the record high temps recorded over the past two years have resulted in record levels of Saharan dust production that have acted as a counterbalance to tropical development in the Atlantic. Precisely what I outlined was possible, in April, during the launch of the hurricane season hype train pulling out of the station. So, here are a couple of factoids for you. Since the onset of Atlantic hurricane season record keeping in 1851, when we’ve entered September with five or fewer named storms, the most we’ve ever had in a season is 18 and the average is 12...meaning that we’re currently pacing an average hurricane season or one that’s half of what every major meteorological forecasting service projected. Now, here’s a major caveat... The Saharan Desert averages three inches of rain per year. Much of the desert has experienced that much rain this week. For now, there are still steady plumes of dust flowing off of the Saharan coast across the Atlantic in our general direction. That’s great news given that we’re in the peak weeks for activity now. But what’s not a given is that the dust will keep on ticking for much longer after the historic rainfall this week. Fingers are crossed but we might need some luck during the back half of this year’s hurricane season. It appears likely to be busier than the first half – even if not nearly to the levels that were projected coming into this year’s season.