Harris Has Probably Peaked & Trump’s Positioned to Win – Top 3 Takeaways – September 4th, 2024
- Harris has probably peaked. I’ll start today’s takeaways with a question. Do you know who you want to vote for? Is there any chance that anything that happens between now and November (or whenever you cast your vote) will change how you intend to vote? That goes for you and just about every voter. The fact of the matter is that where we are politically as a country today is likely where this country will stay as votes are counted on Election Day. I'm not specifically saying that because there are only 62 days until Election Day. Although yeah, we are now only about two months away from Election Day. I’m saying that because based on historical polling, where we stand as a country today, is likely to be close to what the polls will say on Election Day. You’ve probably heard that most voters who don’t regularly engage in politics prior to Labor Day get engaged after Labor Day. It’s true. On this date in 2016 in the RealClear Politics average of polls, Hillary Clinton was shown with a 3.9% advantage in the national popular vote. On Election Day 2016 she was shown with a 3.2% advantage in the polling average – a move of only seven-tenths of a percent. In 2020, the lack of polling movement was even more pronounced as Joe Biden was shown with a 7.2% advantage in the polls – identical to the polling average on Election Day. So, what does that mean? Well, as my top takeaway implies today, Kamala Harris has probably peaked in the polls because that’s what we have seen with Trump’s two challenger’s previously at this stage of the cycle. It’s also because the current polls reflected the bounce that Kamala Harris would have received via the DNC, which as it turns out, is among the smallest in DNC history. Using only national polling samples taken after the DNC was complete, Kamala Harris’ polling lead did grow but by only 0.3%. The average boost in the polls for a Democrat presidential candidate in the modern political era has been 2-points. That Kamala didn’t get more juice out of the DNC shows that the ability for her to continue to grow her support in this race may be tapped out. What’s more is that following Kamala’s first canned interview with CNN last week, which speaking of “weak”, was nothing if not a “weak” performance for her, and as Bill Maher mocked, “her emotional support VP”. The biggest takeaway my wife Ashley and I gleaned from that interview was that the rumors that Harris has been hitting the sauce pretty hard may be true. There’s only one known potential catalyst left on the calendar that could definitively serve to meaningfully move the race and that’s next Tuesday’s debate. And who really thinks that the presidential candidate who, in two presidential races, still hasn’t won anything at the ballot box with actual voters, and still hasn’t held a press conference since becoming the presumptive Democrat Party nominee, and who couldn’t even stick the landing on a CNN interview with the help of her emotional support VP, and who was eviscerated on the debate stage by Tulsi Gabbard, the last time she tried to debate...
- Is really ready to take to Donald Trump on and win the day next Tuesday (though Tulsi Gabbard, who Trump has enlisted to help him prepare for the debate, has warned against underestimating Kamala Harris on the debate stage)? Nevertheless, the word from the Harris debate prep team to NBC News this week is that they want to “remind people of what it was like during Donald Trump’s years”. Seriously? Please do. In fact, my only complaint regarding Donald Trump during the first (Biden) debate was that he didn’t borrow the Reagan line of asking voters if they’re better off than they were four years ago. If Kamala Harris’ strategy is to help him with that, he may just want to yield his time to Harris to make the case for him. But back to where I started with the historical comparison within the polls. So, Biden was shown on this date, and on Election Day, with a 7.2% advantage in the polls four years ago in his narrow win. Clinton was shown with 3.9% advantage nationally, in her narrow loss. Kamala Harris’ lead, at just 1.8%, means that Donald Trump is running a healthy 5.4% ahead of where he was four years ago, and notably 2.1% ahead of where he was running eight years ago when he won. By any objective measure...
- Donald Trump is the best positioned he’s been on this date, when even the casual voters are getting engaged, in any of his three presidential campaigns. When you consider the possibility, if not the likelihood that Harris has also peaked, based upon the relief boost she got from Democrats after Joe Biden dropped out, the massive assist she received from her allies in the godless, soulless and slanderous news media who commonly covered her as the second coming for over a month, and most recently with the benefit of the DNC...there’s a reason for Trump’s team and his supporters to feel optimistic about where this race will finish in 62 days. But the key is to in fact finish this race stronger than in the prior two elections as well. Yes, that means a strong debate performance by the former and perhaps future president next week...but it also means Trump’s supporters voting early in much larger numbers than before. It means more concerned citizens serving as poll watchers than ever before. It means having the RNC across the country preemptively ready for any potential election anomalies. It means treating this election as though our future and the future of our country depends on it... Because it does. Trump won’t be given a chance to Make American Great Again, unless everyone does their part between now and whenever votes are finished being counted on, or after (in far too many places) Election Day.