Trump’s Undefeated Political Season & Harris Has Peaked in the Polls – Top 3 Takeaways
- Trump is 3-0 with 57 days to go. We’re only a week into the NFL schedule so only college football teams have even 2-0 records. But when it comes to 3-0 starts to an NFL season – they are highly predictive of how well the season will go. In the Super Bowl Era 74% of NFL teams to start 3-0 have reached the playoffs. And heading into tomorrow night’s debate that just might be the odds Donald Trump currently has of becoming the next president of the United States following his undefeated regular season and post season run thus far. What the heck am I talking about? Donald Trump, who has overcome about every obstacle imaginable starting with the Russian collusion hoax in 2016, eviscerated all Republican challengers for the Republican nomination. Trump then waxed the incumbent president of the United States knocking him out of the race and now the lawfare campaign waged against him in this cycle. Last week, the final two pieces of the lawfare campaign against Trump that could factor into the final two months of this presidential campaign, were punted until after Election Day. First D.C. Judge Chutkan, said she wasn’t going to pay consideration to the election cycle in considering next steps in the attempted Jack Smith reboot of the Jan. 6th case. Then she set a deadline of November 7th, two days after Election Day, for the next steps in the case. Similarly, New York state Judge Juan Merchan decided to push back sentencing in the New York state criminal case from September 18th to November 26th, putting an end once-and-for-all to the impact that lawfare could have in distracting the former and perhaps future president from the homestretch of this campaign. There’s no telling what might be thrown at Trump next, but for now there is only one known catalyst left in this race and that’s tomorrow’s presidential debate. Trump is battle tested and undefeated this season and he’s facing someone who has never won so much as a single state in a primary election and who was waxed in her previous presidential debate by Tulsi Gabbard. Lawfare is over and if Trump puts in a compelling performance tomorrow night the outcome of this presidential race, and an unrivaled perfect season might be on the horizon for the 45th president of the United States. On that note...
- Freakout. Last Wednesday the headline to My Top 3 Takeaways was this: Harris Has Probably Peaked & Trump’s Positioned to Win. The reasons I provided were these: Kamala Harris has probably peaked in the polls because that’s what we have seen with Trump’s two challenger’s previously at this stage of the cycle. It’s also because the current polls reflected the bounce that Kamala Harris would have received via the DNC, which as it turns out, is among the smallest in DNC history. Using only national polling samples taken after the DNC was complete, Kamala Harris’ polling lead did grow but by only 0.3%. The average boost in the polls for a Democrat presidential candidate in the modern political era has been 2-points. That Kamala didn’t get more juice out of the DNC shows that the ability for her to continue to grow her support in this race may be tapped out. Donald Trump is running a healthy 5.4% ahead of where he was four years ago, and notably 2.1% ahead of where he was running eight years ago when he won. By any objective measure... Donald Trump is the best positioned he’s been on this date. And based on the most recent polling that’s rolling in it appears that my inference has begun to playout. Two of the three most recent national polls (Rasmussen and NY Times/Siena) show Donald Trump with a head-to-head lead against Harris leaving Trump considerably better off today than he was when I presented those dedications last Wednesday.
- The polls are showing that Harris has peaked, but more than that, consider the New York Times headline to their poll on Sunday: Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds...The survey finds that Donald J. Trump is retaining his support and that, on the eve of the debate, voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands. As the toned-down headline suggests, Kamala’s supporters should be extremely concerned. Her strategy to run on good vibes, no serious policy positions, and to avoid the media, is failing. What’s more is that the headline to the story doesn’t tell the whole story. Yes, the polling shows a “neck and neck” race for the national popular vote. But the poll also shows Donald Trump in front by one-point. That’s the exact same margin as the Times had Trump up over Harris on the day that Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. It’s now appearing that it’s not just the case that Kamala has peaked but that her entire bounce is gone. That is, as Trump once would have said, is bigly. What’s more is that the pollsters for the NY Times/Siena poll asked a series of next level questions of the undecided voters (of which there were only about 4%) to press them into telling the pollsters who they would vote for today if it were Election Day. Trump won the remaining undecided voters by a point over Harris too. Here’s some added perspective for you. In this same poll (which is the most closely watched on the left), on this same date four years ago Biden was up 8. In this same poll, on this same date eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was up 2. So, Trump is now running 9-points ahead of where he was four years ago in his narrow loss and 3-points ahead of where he was eight years ago in his narrow win. You don’t need any additional analysis from me to infer what that could mean. The debate stakes for Kamala Harris are off the charts high for tomorrow night’s debate. Trump, meanwhile, just needs to avoid stepping in it during the debate. Until tomorrow...