Q&A of the Day – How Will the Presidential Debate Impact the Presidential Race?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: Brian, I’m the teacher who asked you about the impact of the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump. You addressed my question in a Q&A when you mentioned Joe Biden would have needed a minimum of 5 additional points of support coming out of the debate to have been on track to win the election which obviously wasn’t going to happen. I’d love it if you were to address the question again with Kamala Harris having been installed as the Democrat’s candidate.
Bottom Line: The first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump turned out to be the most important in American history. It was the first time a presidential debate effectively ended the presidential campaign of a candidate who’d clinched their party’s nomination. For that reason, it’s safe to say that last night’s presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump won’t prove to have been as significant. It’s safe to say that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will still be their party’s presidential nominees a month from today. But, with that said, we did enter the debate with enhanced stakes for one candidate in particular. Kamala Harris. Polling had consistently showed large numbers of voters hadn't felt that they know enough about the current vice president and her positions on the issues. That’s of course due in part due to her late entrance into the race, after the primary season, and due to her campaign’s strategy not to hold press conferences and to conduct interviews (save the one canned CNN interview with VP Tim Walz).
Here’s the range of impact in the polls of the first Presidential debate, which has historically had the biggest impact one week later:
Smallest impact:
- Bush vs. Clinton 1992: 0.6%
Largest impact:
- Obama vs. Romney 2012: 5%
- 2024 Biden-Trump impact: 1.1%
Somewhat interestingly, despite the Biden-Trump debate having been the most significant in history, in knocking Biden out of the race, the actual polling impact was below average. The average impact of a first presidential debate has been 2.5%. The Trump-Biden debate had less than half that impact. Although the unique circumstances of that matchup were the contributing reasons. Most Americans already had firm opinions of the current and former president leaving little room for movement. Additionally, Trump had already been polling higher than he’d ever polled heading into the debate meaning that he was already close to his ceiling in support. At the time Biden exited the race Trump was pacing a 338 to 200 win in the electoral college. Fast forward to where we are today and what’s in play coming out of the debate...
My Anatomy of a Swing State Series is designed to account for all of the specifics in this race including the impact of third-party candidates in individual states. As of today’s update... Trump is shown with a 262 to 257 vote advantage taking the RCP average of polls at face value (with Pennsylvania tied). However, when adjusting for the errors within the swing state polls over the prior two elections, that lead grows to an 290-248 vote advantage. Kamala Harris is currently polling one point worse than Hillary Clinton was when she lost to Donald Trump in 2016. Given that context, broadly speaking, Kamala Harris needs to gain at least 1.5% in the polls coming out of this debate to potentially be positioned to win this race. That’s a number I’ll be watching over the next week. And that’s a number I’ll be watching as we make our way towards Election Day.
There’s another important consideration that’s now in play. Several states, including the key states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia are or within the next week will have voting underway. That means where we stand today, as we’re just under eight weeks away, is far more relevant than it had been in previous presidential elections historically. Many of the people sampled in polls going forward won’t just be answering pollsters with the candidate they intend to vote for, but the candidate they’d already voted for. That makes the timing of last night’s debate, at the onset of what’s become an election season, far more important in terms of momentum heading into Election Day.
With all of Donald Trump’s outstanding legal matters postponed until after Election Day, and with no more presidential debates currently scheduled. It’s possible that there may not be any major catalysts to impact the race the rest of the way.