Hurricane Milton Considerations
Thankfully it won’t be at top sustained winds of 180 mph when it gets here. The Pacific's Hurricane Patricia, in 2015, is the strongest monitored hurricane to date with tops sustained winds at 215 mph. In the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Allen, which also was fueled by the warm waters of the Gulf was the most powerful on record with wind topping out at 190 mph at its peak. The most recent hurricane to top Milton’s strength was devastating Hurricane Dorian in 2019. As for Florida’s Gulf Coast, it’s been nothing if not a hurricane magnet in recent years.
Debby, Helene, Idalia, Ian, Nicole, Sally, Michael, Irma, Hermine. Over the past 19 hurricane seasons those are the names of the nine hurricanes that have struck our state. Of those, eight have made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast, and five of them have been major hurricanes when making landfall. On Wednesday it appears Milton will be added to the list. It’s yet another major hurricane on the approach to Florida’s Gulf coast, although potentially right at the point of the greatest impact on Florida’s Gulf Coast in terms of population and property. Tampa Bay. Everything associated with this Hurricane is bad news for our state. The anticipated size, the timing, less than two weeks removed from the most recent hurricane, and for the state’s property insurance market as well. Given the historic devastation caused elsewhere by Helene, and what we’ve seen happen to Cedar Key, as it was leveled by Helene, it may sound weird to hear that the impact on Florida’s property insurance market from Helene was minimal – but that is that is the case.
According to Mark Friedlander from the Insurance Information Institute Helene was considered a moderate loss event for the state of Florida. One of the key reasons is that most of the damage was due to flood damage which is most commonly handled through the federal flood insurance program. What we’re seeing shaping up with Milton may prove to be different in addition to potentially devastating for an already battered and bruised Gulf Coast. That may prove to be bad news for all Floridians as the state’s property insurance market had just recently started to turn the corner on the crisis it’s been under in recent years that’s left Floridians paying huge premium increases to maintain coverage.
The silver lining, if there’s one to be found in what Milton is about to bring, is that it will move quickly across the state – however in part because of its speed it's expected to maintain hurricane status completely across it as well. In our case, we’re expected to be on the south side of the storm, which if you’re going to be anywhere in proximity to a hurricane is where you want to be. For that reason, from the Treasure Coast through Palm Beach County there’s currently a 40%-80% probability (based on your location) of having at least sustained tropical storm force winds throughout the course of this event based on current guidance from the National Hurricane Center.