Q&A of the Day – Where Hurricanes are Most Likely to Make Landfall in Florida - Updated
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Today’s Entry: Today’s Q&A revisits a question that I addressed on August 30th last year with updated information reflecting what’s happened over the previous 13+ months. Hi Brian, great info on Florida’s hurricanes. I’ve never heard anyone use the stats you used about east coast vs west coast hurricane landfalls. Question for you. I believe what you cited was historical information. What do the trends look like more recently? It seems like the gulf coast is getting even more than 60% of the storms.
Bottom Line: This is in reference to my top three takeaways yesterday in which I mentioned this... Dating back to the onset of official tracking of the Atlantic hurricane season in 1851, a total of 120 hurricanes have made landfall in Florida over the course of 173 years accounting for 193 landfalls within the state (73 hurricanes have made multiple landfalls within Florida). Of those, 64% have happened somewhere along the west coast of Florida, making Florida’s east coast less likely to have the landfall of a hurricane. A total that’s even more dramatic when only major hurricanes are considered. 50 major hurricanes have made landfall in Florida since the advent of official hurricane tracking. Of those, 67% have happened on Florida’s Gulf coast – making the east coast of Florida far less likely to experience the impact of a category three hurricane or above. In Florida, geography matters when it comes to where hurricanes tend to strike. Though southeast Florida may appear to be the most susceptible as we stick out into the Atlantic... History, recent and past, continues to show just how much more susceptible those on Florida’s Gulf coast are to the impact of hurricanes of all sizes.
Hurricane Helene’s landfall in Florida’s Big Bend was a continuation of that historical trend. Factoring in Helene, here’s Florida’s historical scorecard by region:
- Northwest: 70 (16 major)
- Southwest: 50 (18 major)
- Southeast: 49 (16 major)
- Northeast: 26 (1 major)
Not only is Florida’s Gulf coast far more prone to hurricane landfalls, the two most prone regions of Florida are both on the Gulf coast of Florida. As for what’s happened most recently Florida’s Gulf coast has been getting more than 60% of Florida’s hurricane activity over the past couple of decades. One of the greatest, albeit pleasant, oddities is that Florida went 11 years, the longest stretch on record, between hurricane landfalls following the record ‘04-’05 hurricane cycle. It’s like we got all of the hurricanes for the next ten years out of the way during that two year stretch in which seven hurricanes made landfall within the state. Since 2005 there have only been nine hurricanes that have made landfall in Florida (and all within the last nine years)
- 2016’s Hurricane Hermine in Northwest Florida
- 2017’s Hurricane Irma in Southwest Florida
- 2018’s Hurricane Michael in Northwest Florida
- 2020’s Hurricane Sally in Northwest Florida
- 2022’s Hurricane Ian in Southwest Florida
- 2022’s Hurricane Nicole in Southeast Florida
- 2023’s Hurricane Idalia in Northwest Florida
- 2024’s Hurricane Debby in Northwest Florida
- 2024’s Hurricane Helene in Northwest Florida
That’s eight hurricanes making landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast including five majors compared to only one hurricane, a category one storm, on Florida’s Atlantic coast. And we’re setting up for more of the same with Hurricane Milton. It’s a small sample size across 20 years of activity, but it equates to 89% of the hurricanes, including all of the major hurricanes, having happened along Florida’s west coast. It’s unknown as to if this is part of some kind of longer-term trend or just especially bad luck for the Gulf coast. It is a reminder though that most Floridians living in southeast Florida haven’t experienced a direct hurricane landfall, it’s something to be mindful of if and when our time comes.