Political Trends as Election Day is Only Three Weeks Away – Top 3 Takeaways – October 15th, 2024
- Three weeks away from Election Day...and the trend appears to be Donald Trump’s friend which is also good news for Republicans down ballot as greater than 90% of ballots cast have been straight ticket votes in recent cycles. As we are now only 21 days away from Election Day, and under a week away from the start of early voting in Florida, let's look at the political trends across the state and across the country...starting with what we see locally. The Florida Division of Elections is in with their latest voter registration information representing all voter registration changes entering October, or only seven days away from the voter registration deadline for voter eligibility in November’s election. What was the result? Republicans added about 63,000 more voters than Democrats during the previous month as the voter registration push was in full swing by both parties. In fact, Republicans out registered Democrats by greater than 10-1 in Florida during the month leading up to the voter registration deadline. That’s the short-term trend that’s very much the friend of Donald Trump and Republicans in Florida. The longer-term trend is equally as dramatic. On Election Day 2020 Democrats held a voter registration advantage of over 100,000 voters in the state, that advantage has swung to an enormous 1 million plus voter advantage in advance of this year’s Election Day. Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016, 3.3% in 2020, and his average polling currently shows him pacing a greater than 6-point lead this year. Long term, short term, it doesn’t matter. Florida’s trends are completely clear and are coming up bright red. Three weeks away from Election Day, Florida is not a state that appears to be in play. But as for the overall states in play there’s...
- An impressively red trend within them as well. Let’s look at the six most closely watched swing states in this cycle. Using the RealClear Politics average of polls... In Arizona, Trump is running 4-points ahead of where he was four years ago when he lost the state and 0.3% ahead of where he was eight years ago when he won it. In Georgia, Trump is running just under 2-points ahead of where he was four years ago when he lost the state and just under 5-points behind where he was eight years ago when he won it. In Michigan, Trump is running eight points higher than four years ago when he lost it and a whooping 12+ points ahead of where he was eight years ago when he won it. In Nevada, Trump is running over 5-points better than four years ago when he lost the state and almost two points better than eight years ago when he also lost it. In North Carolina, Trump is running nearly four points ahead of where he was four years ago when he won the state and 3.5-points ahead of where he was eight years ago when he also won the state. In what’s widely considered to be the most pivotal swing state of this cycle, Pennsylvania, Trump is running over 7-points better than he was four years ago when he lost the state and he’s running over 8-points better than he was eight years ago when he won it...and in Wisconsin, Trump is running over 6.5-points better than he was four years ago when he lost the state and just over 6-points better than eight years ago when he won it. If you were keeping track along with me during the breakdown here’s what you see. Donald Trump is running better in every swing state than he was four years ago when he lost the election and he’s running better in 5 of the 6 states than he did eight years ago when he won the election (and the lone outlier is Georgia where Trump is still shown with a lead in the polls). And the differences we’re currently seeing are anything but small. In these states Trump is running an average of 6-points better than he was four years ago when he narrowly lost the presidential election to Joe Biden and an average of 4.5-points better than eight years ago when he won it. You don’t need any additional analysis from me to know that if Trump’s running an average of 4.5-points better today in swing states than when he was elected president of the United States – there’s a lot that appears to be favorably breaking his way. And that takes us to...
- The big picture. What are the macro trends in this election cycle suggesting? In Gallup’s most recent nationwide survey of partisan leaners, 5% more voters lean towards the Republican Party than currently lean towards the Democrat Party. How big of a change does that appear to be? Huge actually. On Election Day 2016 the partisan lean was indicated as being D+3. Likewise on Election Day 2020 it was also D+3. Republican Party ID is running eight points better than four or eight years ago and in fact, the eight point advantage Republicans are currently showing is the best it’s ever been for Republicans preceding a presidential election dating back to Gallup’s monthly surveying of Party ID over 21 years ago. None of this is meant to say that the election is a lock for Trump and Republicans. Far from it. Turnout is always and will continue to be the determining factor and it’s critical that no matter what polls and surveys say you get out and vote, and for that matter vote early. That’s precisely what I’ll be doing next Monday when early voting gets underway in Florida. With that said, as we look at the big picture, it’s clearly the best it’s been at this stage of the race for Trump in any of his three presidential election cycles, it’s the best it’s been for the Republican Party by way of partisan ID in Gallup’s 21-year history preceding an election, and in Florida specifically, the conditions are ripe for a historically significant red wave in this state. There are a number of analytical reasons for optimism on the right. The question comes down to execution. It doesn’t matter how well a wave sets up. You still have to execute to catch it.