Tracking Turnout. Florida’s Early Voting and Vote-By-Mail Update
Bottom Line: Florida’s Election Day is 14 days away and already over 1.683 million Floridians have had their votes tabulated. This cycle marks the first presidential election cycle in Florida’s history with Republicans holding a voter registration advantage. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats by over 1 million eligible voters entering this year’s election.
Here’s how many Floridians have voted based on party registration in comparison to the 2020 Election:
- Democrat: 39.5% (39.1% - in 2020)
- Republican: 40.4% (37.7% in 2020)
- NPA/Minor Party: 21.1% (23.2% in 2020)
Four years ago, Democrats held a significant advantage with vote by mail ballots with Republicans out voted Democrats with early in person voting. After the first day of early voting, the trends remain the same. Democrats have are leading in vote by mail ballots cast (though by a narrower margin as four years ago), while Republicans appear to have had a strong first day of early voting across lead the state as we await for the first statewide partisan breakout (for example Republicans outvoted Democrats in Palm Beach County by 4,660 voters on Monday). Democrats have historically had an advantage with votes cast prior to Election Day. Republicans have historically outvoted Democrats on Election Day. Two key themes to watch leading up to Election Day will be overall turnout heading into Election Day and the partisan mix of those who’ve voted early.
1,683,676